Habitat suitability and climate modelling for predicting the risk of new invasive plants in Metro Vancouver

气候变化预计将促进入侵植物物种的范围扩大，包括入侵植物向北移动到加拿大。与气候变化相关的更频繁的极端天气事件（例如，洪水或风暴）也将促进传播加剧。由于有利的气候和多样的景观，大温哥华地区已经很容易受到入侵植物的影响，预计将经历更炎热干燥的夏季和更温暖潮湿的冬季。作为进入加拿大的主要港口，大温哥华地区为潜在的入侵者提供了许多途径。由于许多这些潜在的入侵植物物种靠近南部边境或可能通过贸易到达大温哥华地区，因此由于气候变化，优先考虑潜在的入侵植物入侵者是很重要的。我们建议开发气候变化下大温哥华地区生境适宜性的建模方法，结合该大都市区多样景观马赛克的独特特征，并考虑入侵物种的潜在进化变化。我们的合作伙伴包括大温哥华地区作为资助合作伙伴，以及作为应用研究结果的战略合作伙伴。另外两个合作伙伴：BC省农业部和大温哥华入侵物种委员会（ISCMV）也将帮助制定方法。这些组织既了解问题又采取行动的能力使它们成为理想的合作伙伴。不列颠哥伦比亚省政府已经制定了全省范围的风险评估，我们将通过气候变化的视角来研究大温哥华地区的优先物种。Shauna Lee-Chai代表我们的BC省农业部合作伙伴，带来了她之前完成的一个项目的专业知识，该项目预测了气候变化下阿尔伯塔省的新入侵植物。这项研究将由西三一大学的大卫·克莱门茨和英属哥伦比亚大学的詹妮弗·威廉姆斯共同指导的一名硕士生进行。该团队将由两名本科生组成。这种多样化的伙伴关系将为学员提供公平、多样化和包容性方面的科学培训和指导。

Climate change is expected to facilitate range expansion of invasive plant species, including northward movement of invasive plants into Canada. More frequent extreme weather events associated with climate change (e.g., floods or storms) will also foster increased spread. The Metro Vancouver area is already vulnerable to invasive plants because of a favourable climate and diverse landscape, and is expected to experience hotter drier summers and warmer wetter winters. As a major port of entry into Canada, Metro Vancouver provides numerous pathways for potential invaders. With many of these potential invasive plant species nearby south of the border or likely to reach Metro Vancouver through trade, it is important to prioritize potential invasive plant invaders due to climate change. We propose to develop methodology for modelling habitat suitability under climate change for Metro Vancouver, incorporating unique features of the diverse landscape mosaic of this metropolitan region, and accounting for potential evolutionary changes in the invasive species. Our partnerships include Metro Vancouver both as a funding partner, and as strategic partner for applying study results. Two other partners will also help shape the approach: the BC Ministry of Agriculture and the Invasive Species Council of Metro Vancouver (ISCMV). The ability of these organizations to both understand the issues and take action make them ideal partners. The BC Provincial government has already developed Provincial-scale risk assessments, which we will build on by examining priority species for Metro Vancouver through the lens of climate change. Shauna Lee-Chai, representing our BC Ministry of Agriculture partner, brings her expertise from previously completing a project predicting new invasive plants for the Province of Alberta under climate change. The research will be carried out by a Master's student co-supervised by David Clements at Trinity Western University and Jennifer Williams at the University of British Columbia. Two undergrad research students will complete the team. This diverse partnership will provide the trainees with both scientific training and mentoring in equity, diversity, and inclusiveness.