Unlocking links between predicting explosive volcanism and forecasting its effects on climate

自从公元79年庞贝古城被毁以来，以火山碎屑流的形式出现的火山灾害吸引了几代科学家和非科学家的注意和想象。然而，与2010年春天相对较小的Eyjafjallajökull火山喷发有关的长期存在的火山灰云对全球经济造成的后果，使世界完全措手不及，表明了我们对火山喷发动力学的理解存在差距，以及在日益全球化的世界中评估风险的新挑战。1300年至1850年间，小冰河期导致了欧洲各地的饥荒和随之而来的大量人口减少，现在最好的解释是，与广泛的爆炸性火山活动（尤其是集中在环太平洋地区）相关的新型气候影响，使得与2010年事件相关的不安更加严重。

Since the destruction of Pompeii in AD 79, volcanic hazards in the form of devastating pyroclastic flows have captured the attention and imaginations of scientists and non-scientists alike for generations. The global economic consequences of the long-lived ash cloud related to the relatively small Eyjafjallajökull eruption in the spring of 2010, however, caught the world off guard entirely and demonstrated gaps in our understanding of eruption dynamics, as well as new challenges for assessing risks in an increasingly globalized world. That the Little Ice Age, which led to famines and associated vast population declines across Europe between 1300 and 1850, is now best explained as a consequence of novel climate effects related to extensive explosive volcanism particularly concentrated around the Pacific rim makes unease related to the 2010 event more acute. Through 12 tasks involving experimental, theoretical and computational studies of novel aspects of the dynamics of volcanic eruptions, as well as complementary field and remote sensing studies, this proposal will make critical progress on 2 major thematic questions: Do volcanic eruptions modulate or even drive centennial to millenial climate variability with potentially dramatic societal consequences such as the profound European famines that occurred during the “Little Ice Age”? Are seismic tremors related to pre-eruptive magma flow reliable precursors of dangerous eruptions, and are these dynamics expressed in the behavior of, and deposits from, eruption plumes? Progress on each thematic question shares the challenge of resolving and understanding small-scale processes related to the dynamics of particle-fluid mixtures, as well as recognizing their expression in varied geological and geophysical data. My lab is uniquely positioned to make progress. In addition to an established recent record of quantitative field studies, the continuing success of my experimental geological fluid mechanics program motivated construction of the state-of-the-art EOAS Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), which opened in 2012/13, and formed the basis for establishing a successful CFI John Evans Leadership Fund-supported Centre for Geophysical Mixing in the Earth System (CGMES) in 2015/2016. CGMES includes critical infrastructure dedicated to resolving mixing processes in particle-laden flows at all scales of interest. This proposal leverages these capabilities along with my established breadth of experience in volcanology, geodynamics, mantle-climate coupling, planetary science and Earth systems science. This work will train 5 PhD students and 2 MSc students to identify and address cutting edge scientific problems and to carry out work using varied and innovative technical methodologies. In addition, I will involve 10-15 undergraduates at 2nd, 3rd and 4th year (i.e., theses) levels in all aspects of the work.