Predicting impacts of cumulative threats to inform conservation decisions under global change

在全球范围内，物种和生态系统正经历着来自土地使用变化、开发和气候变化的前所未有的压力。在加拿大，许多物种的命运悬而未决。这些物种包括标志性的南方居民虎鲸和红鲑鱼，以及数百种鲜为人知的物种。《濒危物种法》列出了600多个物种，迫切需要了解和预测累积威胁的影响，并利用这些预测制定保护管理和气候适应行动，以减轻这些威胁。该总干事将开展必要的科学研究，以了解多种人为压力对生物多样性的累积和相互作用的影响，然后将利用这些信息制定和测试有效和及时的保护管理和气候适应行动。 在不列颠哥伦比亚省的沿海道格拉斯冷杉（CDF）生物气候带是一个模式系统，以检查累积的影响。这是一个濒危但非常多样化的地区，已迅速转化为人类使用（>60%），并保留250年）和<10%的加里橡树生态系统。该地区的物种多样性和濒危物种数量是加拿大最高的，受到了土地利用变化、顶级捕食者（美洲狮和狼）消失以及外来物种入侵等多种人为影响。气候变化目前正在整个区域施加压力，但目前对物种和生态系统的潜在影响或气候变化如何与其他威胁过程相互作用知之甚少。该DG填补了一个关键的知识空白，并将发现支持物种对气候变化的脆弱性的机制，火灾在维持生态系统恢复力中的作用，以及顶级捕食者的损失造成的营养级联的影响。 该研究计划是建立在创新的实地实验和前沿的生态建模和统计技术相结合。我将用这些方法训练一个庞大的HQP团队，并将继续我的记录，为HQP提供他们在保护科学领域的职业生涯所需的技能，包括问题形成，批判性思维以及出色的分析和沟通技能。它将促进我们对累积效应和多重压力的理解，并有助于建立创新的保护决策科学工具，以恢复全球变化下的物种和生态系统。 最后，这项研究使加拿大处于知识和智力能力的前沿，以制定和应用保护管理和气候适应行动，确保我们的物种和生态系统的子孙后代的复原力。

Globally, species and ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented pressure from land use change, exploitation and climate change. Here in Canada, the fate of many species hangs in the balance. These species include iconic southern resident killer whales and sockeye salmon as well as hundreds of less known species. With >600 species listed under the Species at Risk Act and counting, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the impact of cumulative threats and use these predictions to develop conservation management and climate adaptation actions to mitigate these threats. This DG, will undertake the science needed to understand the cumulative and interacting impacts of multiple anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and will then use this information to develop and test effective and timely conservation management and climate adaptation actions. The Coastal Douglas Fir (CDF) bioclimatic zone in British Columbia is a model system to examine cumulative impacts. It is an endangered but extraordinarily diverse region that has been rapidly converted to human use (>60%) and retains 250 years), and <10% of Garry oak ecosystems. The diversity of species and number of Species at Risk within the region is among the highest in Canada and has been subject to a multitude of anthropogenic impacts from land use change to loss of top predators (cougars and wolves) and invasion by exotic species. Climate change is now exerting pressure across the entire region with little currently known about potential impacts on species and ecosystems or how climate change will interact with other threatening processes. This DG fills a critical knowledge gap and will discover the mechanisms underpinning species vulnerability to climate change, role of fire in maintaining ecosystem resilience, and the impact of trophic cascades resulting from the loss of top predators. This research program is built on a combination of innovative field experiments and leading-edge ecological modeling and statistical techniques. I will train a large team of HQP in these methods and will continue my track record of providing HQP with sought after skills for their careers in conservation science including problem formation, critical thinking, and exceptional analytical and communication skills. It will advance our understanding of cumulative effects and multiple pressures and contribute to building innovative conservation decision science tools to recover species and ecosystem under global change. Finally, this research places Canada at the leading edge of knowledge and intellectual capacity to develop and apply conservation management and climate adaptation actions to ensure the resilience of our species and ecosystems for generations to come.