Models of avian migration: development and empirical tests using automated radio-telemetry

来自地球各地的证据表明，天气模式和气候制度正在发生变化，社会必须解决动物数量是否以及如何跟上环境变化速度的问题。在像加拿大这样季节性很强的环境中，迁徙和繁殖的时机对生殖适合性有很大影响。然而，由于在多个空间和时间尺度上发生的环境变异性，可能很难实现最佳时机。为了预测种群的反应，我们需要加强我们对个体如何预测季节变化和在整个迁徙过程中对环境变化做出反应的理解。在迁徙和繁殖的时机上，我们也不能再忽视性别和年龄的差异，因为个体对非生物和生物因素的反应可能会因性别和年龄而异。我的研究项目正在揭示关键机制，这些机制影响动物对环境因素做出反应的迁徙和繁殖事件的时间安排。我提出的发现研究计划将专注于北美鸣鸟在劳伦斯五大湖生态区的迁徙。 我的研究项目揭示了关于鲑鱼和鸟类季节性节律的基于个体的适应性变化的新见解，一个广泛的主题已经出现。我的数据表明，个体动物可能会灵活地调整迁徙和繁殖的时间，以最大限度地适应健康，这可能会加速适应气候变化。然而，我们仍未接近预测人口反应。我的下一步将是整合驱动鸣禽迁徙运动的具体机制的模型和实证研究。 为了显著推进我的研究计划，我提出了三个短期目标，每个目标都与鸣禽迁徙时机的行为灵活性有关。目标一是开发特定年龄和性别的迁移的空间显式模型，以将个人行为与人口水平的影响联系起来。目标二是通过使用最先进的自动化数字无线电遥测系统跟踪鸟类，来测试关于年龄对迁徙影响的模型预测。目的三是对时间限制和社会促进影响迁移速度的假设进行实验验证。 我的研究计划将增进关于鸣鸟如何成功地在动态景观中迁徙的基本知识。鸣禽对加拿大具有特殊的生态、经济和文化重要性，它们是生态系统健康的哨兵。在接下来的5年里，我将培训17名新生和8名其他学员。这些受训人员将成为生态学、进化和行为基础方面的专家，并将获得研究和模拟迁徙、能源使用和运动的技能。他们将成为在学术界、工业界、政府和非政府组织中工作的高能力科学家，以确定自然资源管理的最佳实践。

Evidence from around the Earth indicates that weather patterns and climate regimes are shifting, and society must address whether and how animal populations will keep pace with the rate of environmental change. In highly seasonal environments like those of Canada, the timing of migration and reproduction strongly influences reproductive fitness. Yet optimal timing can be difficult to achieve due to environmental variability occurring at multiple spatial and temporal scales. To predict responses of populations, we need to strengthen our understanding of how individuals anticipate seasonal change and respond to environmental variability across entire migratory journeys. We also can no longer ignore sex and age differences in the timing of migration and reproduction, because the way individuals respond to abiotic and biotic factors likely will be sex- and age-specific. My research program is uncovering key mechanisms that influence how animals time their migratory and reproductive events in response to environmental factors. My proposed discovery research program will focus on the migration of North American songbirds in the Laurentian Great Lakes ecoregion. My research program has revealed new insights about adaptive individual-based variation in seasonal timing in salmon and birds, and a broad theme has emerged. My data suggest that individual animals may flexibly adjust their timing of migration and reproduction to maximize fitness, which may hasten adaptation to climate change. However, we are still not close to predicting population responses. My next step will be to integrate models and empirical studies of the specific mechanisms that drive migratory movements in songbirds. To significantly advance my research program, I am proposing three short-term objectives, each of which relates to a behavioural flexibility in migration timing in songbirds. Objective I is to develop spatially-explicit models of age- and sex-specific migration to link individual behaviour to population-level effects. Objective II is to test model predictions regarding age effects on migration by tracking birds with a state-of-the-art, automated, digital radiotelemetry system. Objective III is to experimentally test the hypothesis that time constraints and social facilitation affect migration speed. My research program will advance basic knowledge of how songbirds migrate successfully across a dynamic landscape. Songbirds have exceptional ecological, economic, and cultural importance to Canada, and they serve as sentinels of ecosystem health. Over the next 5 years, I will train 17 new students and 8 other trainees. These trainees will become experts in the fundamentals of ecology, evolution, and behaviour, and will gain skills to study and model migration, energy use, and movement. They will become highly competent scientists working in academia, industry, government, and NGOs to determine best practices for natural resource management.