The Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea - Studies of the Ocean to the North and East of Canada

该提案的主题重点是北纬高纬度地区的气候和海洋动态，包括北极、加拿大北极群岛（CAA）和北大西洋，从全球变化的角度来看，包括短期到长期的趋势、可变性、极端事件和越来越多地被商业利用的海洋环境。由于通常被称为极地放大的反馈过程，预计北极和亚北极地区将因全球变暖而经历幅度特别大的变化。这些地区已经出现了气候和环境变化加速的特点。海冰的消失和大陆冰盖的融化是惊人的，变化的速度是前所未有的。此外，流向北大西洋和拉布拉多海的过量融水可能会干扰深海水的形成，从而影响全球海洋环流以及对气候活跃气体（如二氧化碳）的吸收，从而反馈给整个气候系统。此外，由于大气和海洋变暖，冰川冰块的加速损失可能导致全球海平面显著上升。连接北极冰、格陵兰冰盖、海洋和大气的反馈过程仍然没有从观测中完整地记录下来，也没有完全量化，因为最先进的气候模式仍然无法重现观测到的北极冰减少的仪器趋势。此外，高纬度气候变化可能不是线性的，系统可能达到阈值，超过这个阈值，任何强迫的微小变化都可能导致放大的响应。在区域一级，这些变化影响当地天气和海洋生态系统（包括通过海洋酸化的变化），直接影响北部和东部沿海社区的生计。在这种情况下，预测北极-亚北极系统的演变是一项重要的挑战。因此，本提案将旨在使用历史数据分析和高至极高分辨率的数值模拟来检查过去在CAA、巴芬湾和拉布拉多海等地区的海洋和海冰的变化，检查与这些变化相关的关键潜在物理和动力过程。该提案的长期目标是努力了解加拿大周围的水域和海冰在未来将如何演变（在现在和过去的行为背景下），并将这些信息提供给许多关心这些信息的利益相关者。建模将使用一个耦合的海洋/海冰模型，该模型还包括潮汐、冰山和生物地球化学的模块。该模型将以这样一种方式进行，允许与加拿大（特别是联邦政府内部）以及国际上的其他团体直接合作。

The thematic focus of the proposal is climate and ocean dynamics at high northern latitudes, including the Arctic, Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and the North Atlantic Ocean, in a global change perspective that includes short- to long term trends, variability, extreme events and a marine environment that is being used more and more commercially. The Arctic and subarctic regions are expected to experience particularly large amplitude changes in response to global warming due to feedback processes often referred to as polar amplification. These regions are already characterized by an acceleration of climatic and environmental change. Loss of sea ice and melting of continental ice caps are dramatic and the rate of change unprecedented. Moreover, the excess meltwater routed towards the North Atlantic and Labrador Sea may interfere with the formation of deep ocean water, thus affecting the global ocean circulation as well as the take-up of climatically active gases such as CO2, feeding back on the overall climate system. Furthermore, the accelerated loss of the glacial ice mass in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming may lead to a significant increase in global sea level. The feedback processes that link the Arctic ice, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the ocean and atmosphere remain incompletely documented from observations and are imperfectly quantified as state-of-the-art climate models still fail to reproduce observed instrumental trends of Arctic ice decline. Moreover, high latitude climate change may not be linear and the system might reach thresholds beyond which small change in any forcing can result in amplified response. On a regional level, these changes affect local weather and marine ecosystems (including through changes in ocean acidification), with direct bearing on the livelihood of Northern and east coast communities. In this context forecasting the evolution of the Arctic-subarctic system is an important challenge. Thus this proposal will aim to use historical data analysis and high to very high resolution numerical modelling to examine past changes in the ocean and sea-ice in regions such as the CAA, Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, examining key underlying physical and dynamical processes associated with these changes. The long term goal of this proposal will be to work towards understanding how the waters and sea-ice around Canada will evolve in the future (in the context of present and past behavior), and to provide that information to the many stakeholders concerned with such information. Modelling will be carried out using a coupled ocean/sea ice model that also includes modules for the tides, icebergs, and biogeochemistry. This modelling will be carried out in such a way to allow direct collaboration with other groups in Canada (especially within the federal government), as well as internationally.