Identifying and understanding key drivers and determinants future permafrost thaw

识别和理解未来永久冻土融化的关键驱动因素和决定因素本研究项目将对未来进行预测，并预测未来几十年和几个世纪永久冻土融化的影响有多大。解冻是指地面部分或全部的冰融化。其中一些冰可能已经在地下存在了数千年，人类可能从未经历过没有它的世界。如今，加拿大地下有超过三分之一的永久冻土，由于人为造成的气候变化，这一地区的大部分地区将经历融化，并因此经历非常强烈的变化。人们可以对发生的变化做出反应，也可以选择向前看，适应未来可能发生的事情。通常，向前看会带来更聪明、成本更低的解决方案，而这个研究项目通过更好地理解永久冻土融化的行为，有助于实现这一点。我们将选择相关的行为，例如由于地面冰损失导致的地表下降量，并研究它如何随时间变化。在一个地方，一开始可能会有很多下降，几十年后，这种情况将会停止。在另一个地方，可能十年都不会下降，但当它开始时，它会持续两个世纪。能够预测这一点将有助于我们决定在哪里建造以及如何使用土地。因为没有任何预测是完美的，我们也会研究驱动这些变化的最重要因素是什么，以及我们最不了解的因素是什么。所有这些都是通过计算机模拟完成的，其中永久冻土模型从地球系统模型中获得数据，这些模型可以预测未来几十年或几个世纪的全球气候。要相信这些模型，我们需要看看它们在预测我们过去已经知道和观察到的东西方面是否做得很好。而且，作为科学家，我们有机会了解到什么时候预测和观察不相符。这就是为什么这个研究项目的第二部分是观察永久冻土融化，然后测试和改进我们使用的计算机模型。这一点尤其重要，因为我们几乎没有数据和经验来测量永久冻土融化。通过测量和计算机模型来研究解冻，我们可以以一种稳健的方式了解它的行为。测量使我们以过去为基础，模型使我们能够模拟我们尚不知道的东西。学生和其他受训者是进行学术研究的关键原因，加拿大迫切需要能够准备和应对气候变化的专家。这个研究项目让学生和学员接触到以计算机为基础的工作、在北方的实地工作以及与北方人的合作。这些多才多艺的毕业生将能够将研究成果应用于政府、行业和社区，并通过他们多样化的经验和技能为加拿大社会的弹性建设做出贡献。

Identifying and understanding key drivers and determinants of future permafrost thaw This research program will make projections into the future and predict how strong the effects of permafrost thaw will be in coming decades and centuries. Thaw refers to some or all of the ice in the ground melting. Some of this ice may have been in the ground for thousands of years and humans may never have experienced a world without it. Today, more than one-third of Canada has permafrost in the subsurface and because of human-made climate change, much of this area will experience thaw and undergo very strong changes as a result. People can respond to changes as they happen or chose to look forward and adapt to what will likely happen in the future. Usually, looking forward enables smarter and less costly solutions and this research program contributes to this by better understanding the behaviour of permafrost thaw. We will select relevant behaviours, for example the amount of surface lowering because of ice-loss in the ground, and study how it changes over time. In one place, there may be a lot of lowering at first and after a few decades, this will stop. At another place there may be no lowering for a decade but when it starts, it continues for two centuries. Being able to predict this will help to make decision about where we build and how we use the land. And because no prediction is perfect, we also study what the most important factors are that drive these changes and which of them we know least. All of this is done with computer simulation where permafrost models get their data from Earth-system models that project global climate decades or centuries into the future. To trust these models, we need to see if they do a good job in predicting what we already know and have observed in the past. And also, as scientists we have a chance to learn when the prediction and the observation do not match. This is why this research program has a second part that observes permafrost thaw and then tests and improves the computer models we use. This is especially important because we have little data and very little experience of measuring permafrost thaw. By investigating thaw with measurements and with computer models, we can learn how it behaves in a robust way. Measurements ground us in the past and models allow to simulate what we do not yet know. Students and other trainees are key reason to perform academic research and Canada urgently needs experts capable of preparing for and responding to climate change. This research program exposes students and trainees to a combination of computer-based work, fieldwork in the north and collaboration with northerners. Such multi-talented graduates will be able to put the research results into practice for government, industry and communities and through their diverse experience and skill contribute to building resiliency in Canadian society.