Uncertainty Assessment in Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources

五大湖拥有世界上20%的淡水，除了满足生态需求外，还为大约4500万人提供市政、灌溉、工业和商业用水，其中包括1100万加拿大人。然而，预计气候变化将影响该地区的水供应和水质制度。因此，评估气候变化对五大湖流域水资源的影响具有重要的社会经济意义。利用气候模拟模式得到的预估，在水文模式的帮助下评估气候变化的影响。气候和水文模型的产出正越来越多地被政策管理者、决策者和管理者使用。虽然这是在将水作为一种重要的自然资源进行管理方面向前迈出的非常重要的一步，但了解模型制定背后的框架也同样重要。气候和水文学的数学模型试图模拟地球上、地上和地下的水运动，以了解不同地点和不同时间水的可用性的变化。在我们努力用数学模型来表示自然系统的过程中，研究人员对这些过程做了一些简化的假设。这导致了未来发展、碳排放情景、气候和水文模型公式等方面的不确定性。目前迫切需要建立一个知识库并发展对气候变化影响评估中的不确定性的理解，以便管理者和决策者制定切合实际的气候变化适应战略。本研究计划的长期目标是建立一个全面的知识库，以量化和减少气候变化对水资源和非点源污染物负荷制度的影响评估中的不确定性。在短期内，本提案的目标是开发一个框架和所需的创新计算工具，以利用多目标进化算法和数据同化方法评估气候变化对水资源影响的不确定性。本研究的结果将包括气候变化对大湖流域水资源状况的影响以及相关的不确定性。这些成果将与国际联合委员会、环境和气候变化部、农业和自然资源部、保护当局等政府机构共享。外联活动和通讯产品（出版物、简报和技术报告）将帮助各机构考虑到不确定因素，制定实用的水管理解决办法。

The Great Lakes with 20% of the world's fresh water, in addition to meeting the ecological needs, provide municipal, irrigation, industrial and commercial water supplies to about 45 million people, including 11 million on the Canadian side. However, the climate change is projected to affect the water availability and the water quality regimes of the region. Therefore, the assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Great Lakes basin is of paramount socioeconomic importance.The projections obtained from the climate simulation models are used to assess the climate change impacts with the help of hydrological models. The climate and hydrological model outputs are increasingly being used by policy managers, decision makers and regulators. While this is a very important step forward in managing water as an important natural resource, it is equally important to understand the framework behind the model formulation. Mathematical models on climate and hydrology attempt to simulate the water movement above, on and below the earth in an effort to understand the variations in its availability at different locations and at different times. In our efforts to represent the natural system in terms of mathematical models, researchers make some simplified assumptions about the processes. This results in uncertainties due to future development, carbon emission scenarios, climate and hydrological model formulations. There is an urgent need to generate a knowledgebase and develop understanding on the uncertainty in climate change impact assessments in an effort to develop realistic climate change adaptation strategies by administrators and decision makers. The long term objective of this research program is to develop a comprehensive knowledgebase for quantifying and reducing the uncertainties in the climate change impact assessment on water resources and nonpoint source pollutant loading regimes. In the short-term, the objective for the present proposal is to develop a framework and the required innovative computational tools for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts on water resources using multiobjective evolutionary algorithms and data assimilation methods. The outcomes of the present study will include the climate change impacts on the water resources regime in the Great Lakes basin and the associated uncertainties. These outcomes will be shared with government agencies such as International Joint Commission, Ministries of Environment and Climate Change, Agriculture and Natural Resources, Conservation Authorities. The outreach activities and communication products (publications, presentations, and technical reports) will help the agencies in developing pragmatic water management solutions by considering uncertainties.