Probabilistic modelling and Quantification of Natural Hazards and Multi-risk at Site and Regional levels

极端地震和气候条件会造成人员伤亡、建筑物和基础设施受损以及经济损失。规范和标准中对地震和气候荷载的结构设计要求代表了实现充分生命安全所需的最低可接受措施。通过考虑单个结构或结构构件以及自然灾害的统计数据，针对选定的目标可靠性对载荷进行校准。然而，一个地区的所有建筑和基础设施系统都受到相同的极端自然事件的影响，可能会导致多个结构物倒塌。这具有严重的社会影响，因为公众对灾害的反应表明，仅考虑单个结构的安全进行设计是重要的，但对于一个拥有空间分布的建筑物和基础设施系统的区域来说，可能不符合最佳的社会利益。此外，目前加拿大的结构设计规范没有意识到气候变化的影响。拟议的研究计划是为结构和基础设施系统制定基于风险的优化设计和改造标准，以将自然灾害降至最低，并提高社会复原力。这项研究将促进人们对极端天气风暴和强烈地震地面运动对一组结构风险的影响的认识。它整合了先进的气候变化建模结果和风险建模技术。该计划将：A)对包括气候变化影响和事件内相关性的空间相关的加拿大气候灾害(即，风、雪和冰的积累)进行建模和绘制地图；B)使用不同的地震源模型对绘制的加拿大地震灾害进行建模和比较，并为空间变化的多分量空间相关地震动开发随机模型和模拟技术；C)通过包括气候变化影响来估计建筑物和基础设施系统在区域层面上的多重风险；以及D)为设计和评估认识到气候变化影响和区域灾害敏感性的结构开发和建议自然荷载。该提案的创新之处包括：提出了考虑空间相关性、风暴运动和气候变化影响的新气候灾害模型；更好地了解了加拿大的地震灾害；开发了多方向空间相关性随机地面运动的新模型和模拟技术；量化了结构或基础设施系统遭受极端自然事件的风险；以及推荐了对信息敏感、风险一致和可识别气候变化的结构设计荷载。该研究计划申请的资金是为了支持和培训10名博士和2名MESc研究生，他们将为社会减少自然灾害的努力做出贡献，并通过考虑气候变化的影响来建立和维护一个在自然灾害威胁下具有弹性的社会。

Extreme earthquakes and climate conditions cause fatalities, damages to buildings and infrastructure, and economic losses. The structural design requirements for earthquake and climatic loads in codes and standards represent the minimum acceptable measures required to achieve adequate life safety. The loads are calibrated for selected target reliability by considering individual structure or structural members and the statistics of natural hazards. However, all buildings and infrastructure systems in a region are subjected to the same extreme natural event, potentially leading to the collapse of multiple structures. This has serious societal implications since the public reaction to disasters indicates that design by considering the safety of a single structure alone is important but may not be in the best societal interest for a region with spatially distributed buildings and infrastructure systems. Moreover, the current Canadian structural design codes are not cognizant of climate change effects. The proposed research program is to develop risk-based optimal design and retrofit criteria for structures and infrastructure systems to minimize natural disasters and improve societal resilience. The research will advance the knowledge on the effects of extreme weather storms and strong earthquake ground motions on the risk of a group of structures. It integrates advanced climate change modelling results and risk modelling techniques. The program is to: A) Model and map the spatially correlated Canadian climate hazards (i.e., wind, snow, and ice accretion) that include climate change effects and intraevent correlation; B) Model and compare mapped Canadian seismic hazard using different seismic source models, and develop stochastic models and simulation techniques for spatially varying multi-component spatially correlated seismic ground motions; C) Estimate the multi-risk of buildings and infrastructure systems at the regional levels by including climate change effects; and D) Develop and recommend natural loads for design and evaluating structures that are cognizant of climate change effect and regional hazard sensitive. The novelties of the proposal include advancing new climatic hazard models that consider spatial correlation, storm motion, and climate change effects; a better understanding of Canadian seismic hazard; developing new models and simulation techniques for multi-directional spatially correlated stochastic ground motions; quantifying the risk of structures or infrastructure systems subjected extreme natural events; and recommending structural design loads that are information-sensitive, risk-consistent and climate change cognizant. The funding requested for the research program is to support and train 10 PhD and 2 MESc graduate students who will contribute to the society's effort to reduce natural disasters and to build and maintain a resilient society under the threat of natural hazards and by including climate change effects.