Probabilistic Modeling of Spatio-temporally Varying Natural Hazard and Risk

时空变化的自然灾害和风险的概率模型

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-04814
• 负责人: Hong, Hanping
• 金额: $ 3.64万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=636132
• 关键词: Probabilistic; Modeling; Spatio; temporally; Varying

Large earthquakes, strong winds and heavy snowfalls can cause fatalities, damage to structures and infrastructure systems, and interrupt business. The structural design codes are used to ensure that the failure probability of a structure due to natural loads is below a tolerable level. However, public reaction to collapse of multiple buildings under extreme natural events indicates that design by considering safety of a single structure alone is important, but may not be in the best societal interest for a portfolio of spatially distributed buildings and for infrastructure with spatially extended footprint. Inhomogeneity in climate and tectonic characteristics results in the natural hazards and loads acting on houses and buildings being spatio-temporally varying and correlated. Probabilistic quantification of the hazards influences the assessed risk and the design code updating. The impact of hazards on the portfolio of buildings or spatially distributed infrastructure systems, such as a power transmission tower-line system, needs to be appraised for successful implementation of policies to mitigate and reduce catastrophic losses. The appraisal promotes excellence in design code making, and optimal resource allocation to reduce natural disasters, maintain our standard of living, and improve societal resilience.

大地震、强风和大雪可能造成人员伤亡，破坏建筑物和基础设施系统，并中断业务。结构设计规范用于确保结构在自然荷载作用下的失效概率低于可容忍水平。然而，公众对极端自然事件下多座建筑倒塌的反应表明，仅考虑单个结构的安全性进行设计是重要的，但对于空间分布的建筑组合和具有空间扩展足迹的基础设施来说，可能不符合最佳社会利益。气候和构造特征的不均质性导致作用在房屋和建筑物上的自然灾害和荷载具有时空变化和相关性。风险的概率量化影响风险评估和设计规范更新。需要评估灾害对建筑物组合或空间分布的基础设施系统(如输电塔线系统)的影响，以成功实施减轻和减少灾难性损失的政策。该评估促进了在设计代码编制和优化资源分配方面的卓越表现，以减少自然灾害，维持我们的生活水平，并提高社会韧性。