Probabilistic Modeling of Spatio-temporally Varying Natural Hazard and Risk

时空变化的自然灾害和风险的概率模型

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-04814
• 负责人: Hong, Hanping
• 金额: $ 3.64万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=615320
• 关键词: Probabilistic; Modeling; Spatio; temporally; Varying

Large earthquakes, strong winds and heavy snowfalls can cause fatalities, damage to structures and infrastructure systems, and interrupt business. The structural design codes are used to ensure that the failure probability of a structure due to natural loads is below a tolerable level. However, public reaction to collapse of multiple buildings under extreme natural events indicates that design by considering safety of a single structure alone is important, but may not be in the best societal interest for a portfolio of spatially distributed buildings and for infrastructure with spatially extended footprint. Inhomogeneity in climate and tectonic characteristics results in the natural hazards and loads acting on houses and buildings being spatio-temporally varying and correlated. Probabilistic quantification of the hazards influences the assessed risk and the design code updating. The impact of hazards on the portfolio of buildings or spatially distributed infrastructure systems, such as a power transmission tower-line system, needs to be appraised for successful implementation of policies to mitigate and reduce catastrophic losses. The appraisal promotes excellence in design code making, and optimal resource allocation to reduce natural disasters, maintain our standard of living, and improve societal resilience. The proposed research program deals with probabilistic modeling of spatio-temporally varying hazards and risk due to extreme wind, snow and earthquake events. More specifically, the program is to: A) map wind and snow hazards for Canada and Canadian design practice, and develop spatial correlation models for extreme winds and ground snow loads; B) Model and simulate tri-directional (3D) seismic ground motions fields conditioned on actual ground motion records and matching target spatial correlation and coherency; C) Estimate the risk to spatially distributed buildings and infrastructure under geographically varying natural hazards; and D) calibrate codified design criteria based on reliability and risk of a group of structures. The novelties of the proposal include the development of new wind and snow hazard maps for Canada using advanced techniques, the advancement of new models and algorithms for simulating conditional 3D ground motion fields with realistic spatial correlation and coherency, the quantitative reliability and risk assessment of groups of structures or spatially distributed infrastructure system under realistic temporally and geographically varying natural hazards, and the incorporation of advanced decision theory under uncertainty for making structural design codes. The funding requested for the research program is to support and train graduate students who will contribute to the society’s effort to reduce natural disasters, and to build and maintain a resilient society under the threat of spatio-temporally varying natural hazards.

大地震、强风和大雪可能会造成人员伤亡、结构和基础设施系统损坏，并中断业务。结构设计规范用于确保结构由于自然荷载而失效的概率低于容许水平。然而，公众对极端自然事件下多个建筑物倒塌的反应表明，设计时仅考虑单个结构的安全性很重要，但对于空间分布的建筑物组合和空间扩展的基础设施来说，可能不符合最佳社会利益。气候和构造特征的不均匀性导致作用于房屋和建筑物上的自然灾害和荷载在时空上变化和相关。危害的概率量化影响评估的风险和设计代码更新。需要评估灾害对建筑物组合或空间分布的基础设施系统（如输电塔线系统）的影响，以便成功实施减轻和减少灾难性损失的政策。该评估促进了设计规范制定的卓越性，并优化了资源分配，以减少自然灾害，保持我们的生活水平，并提高社会复原力。 拟议的研究计划涉及由于极端的风，雪和地震事件的时空变化的危害和风险的概率建模。更具体地说，该计划是：A）为加拿大和加拿大的设计实践绘制风和雪的危险图，并为极端风和地面雪荷载开发空间相关模型; B）根据实际地面运动记录和匹配目标空间相关性和相干性，模拟和模拟三向（3D）地震地面运动场; C）估计在地理上变化的自然灾害下空间分布的建筑物和基础设施的风险;以及D）基于一组结构的可靠性和风险来校准编码的设计标准。该提案的创新之处包括：使用先进技术为加拿大绘制新的风和雪灾害地图;推进新的模型和算法，以模拟具有现实空间相关性和一致性的条件三维地面运动场;在现实的时间和地理变化的自然灾害下，对结构群或空间分布的基础设施系统进行定量可靠性和风险评估;以及在不确定性条件下结合先进的决策理论来制定结构设计规范。 该研究计划所需的资金是支持和培养研究生，他们将为社会减少自然灾害的努力做出贡献，并在时空变化的自然灾害的威胁下建立和维持一个有弹性的社会。