The role of chemical fuels in Canada's net zero transition

要实现加拿大的温室气体净零排放目标，就需要以前所未有的速度和规模部署新技术。考虑到资源限制和部署限制，我们应该如何优先分配化学燃料（如化石燃料、合成燃料、生物基燃料）基础设施的资源，同时考虑到各个部门的竞争需求？尽管在电力系统净零转型建模方面取得了进展，但在分析化学燃料的作用和部门之间的相互作用方面仍然存在差距。化学燃料将在加拿大能源系统中扮演过渡性和持续性的角色，特别是在需要高能量密度或高温的应用中。这项工作的重点是设想化学燃料在整个经济中的最佳作用和组合，同时考虑系统的相互作用——包括跨部门和燃料生产途径之间的相互作用。我们将调整现有的框架，建立一个各省分类的能源系统模型（最初以安大略省和阿尔伯塔省为重点），并扩展该模型，使其包括比以前更详细的技术代表和更可信的政策情景约束。全系统视角将确保能源选择符合温室气体减排目标，完整的能源系统模型将使我们能够模拟技术扩散的后果和限制，并捕捉部门间的相互作用。这项研究的目标是更详细地模拟重工业和运输，作为确定相关相互作用的试验台。主要成果将包括对化学燃料的最佳作用和组合的新见解；改进关键部门和能源生产途径的技术和经济参数建模；识别可能促进或阻碍净零转型的新系统相互作用；开发一种新的开源能源系统模型，广泛覆盖所有能源载体。我们将利用与其他国内和国际能源系统建模者建立的关系，并与非政府组织和政府机构建立密切的伙伴关系，设计现实的情景，并确保模型结果能够转化为相关的政策和决策。

Meeting Canada's net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets requires deployment of new technologies with unprecedented speed and scale. Given resource limitations and deployment constraints, how should we prioritize resource allocation for chemical fuels (e.g., fossil, synthetic, bio-based) infrastructure, while accounting for competing demands across sectors? Despite progress modelling net-zero transitions in electricity systems, gaps remain in analyzing the role of chemical fuels and interactions between sectors. Chemical fuels will play both transitional and ongoing roles in the Canadian energy system, especially in applications requiring high energy density or high temperatures. The focus of this work is to envision the optimal role and mix of chemical fuels across the economy while accounting for system interactions-both across sectors and among fuel production pathways. We will adapt an existing framework to build a provincially disaggregated energy system model (with an initial focus on Ontario and Alberta) and expand that model to include more detailed technology representation and more credible policy scenario constraints than has been done previously. A system-wide perspective will ensure energy choices are consistent with GHG reduction targets, and a complete energy system model will enable us to model the consequences and limits of technology diffusion and capture sectoral interactions. The research will aim for greater detail in modelling heavy industry and transportation as a test bed for identifying relevant interactions. Key outcomes will include new insights into the optimal role and mix of chemical fuels; improved modelling of technical and economic parameters for key sectors and energy production pathways; identification of novel system interactions that may facilitate or hinder the net-zero transition; and development of a new open-source energy system model with broad coverage across energy carriers. We will draw on established relationships with other domestic and international energy system modelers, and close partnerships with NGOs and government agencies to design realistic scenarios and ensure model results can be translated to relevant policy and decision making.