Environmentally informed virtual water trade: a framework to assess water-food-energy nexus at the regional scale

许多水安全挑战主要发生在区域范围内，但超出了河流流域和当地社区的边界。虚拟水交易（VWT）是一种很有前途的区域水管理方法，它促进了水密集型商品从水资源丰富的地区流向水资源匮乏的地区。然而，大多数VWT研究(1)都是在全球一级进行的，只涉及国际食品贸易，没有考虑次区域一级的水-食物-能量（WFE）动态研究；(2)供水量与用水量评价中，未系统研究绿色水与蓝色水、化石水与可再生水的时空动态特征；3)没有在相同的分析框架内评估VWT的环境影响，包括水质退化。所有这些理论差距都导致了VWT在区域水管理中的可行性存在很大的不确定性。本文建议以加拿大大草原地区为例，在次国家层面研究虚拟水问题。我计划通过考虑影响WFE和贸易关系的自然物理过程和人为因素来研究“环境知情的VWT （EI-VWT）”。我的DG研究计划的短期（5年）目标是适应生态水文（地质）逻辑模型，以评估水、食物和贸易关系的动态；并制定一个框架，以审查在分国家一级作为一种管理选择的生态环境-野生动植物保护区的可行性。我的具体目标是空间明确和时间评估：(1)在区域尺度上区分蓝色，绿色，化石和可再生资源的供水，物理作物产量和作物用水量。将测试多模型比较和将关键过程整合/改进为区域模型，包括冰川、冻土、地下水相互作用以及气候变化影响。(2)区域尺度上的水质，包括营养物和泥沙的输运。(3)水、食物和贸易动态对EI-VWT的检验。我的HQP驱动研究计划的长期（5-15年）目标是通过整合与能源生产和贸易相关的过程及其累积影响来推进框架；2)社会经济因素和当地条件对形成区域WFE和贸易政策具有重要意义；3)高频和低频气候振荡下的极端事件。拟议的研究将解决知识差距，即在审查区域水管理的VWT战略时对水量和质量过程的综合理解以及与WFE贸易动态的关系。这项研究是独一无二的——在自然和经济条件多样化的出口导向型地区（如加拿大西部），就综合性、整合性和方法的研究而言，它是VWT文献中最早的研究之一。

Many water security challenges occur predominantly at regional scale, yet beyond the borders of river basins and local communities. The virtual water trade (VWT) is a promising regional water management approach that promotes the flow of water-intensive commodities from water-abundant to water-scarce regions. However, the majority of VWT studies 1) have been conducted at the global level, only concerning the international food trade, where studies of water-food-energy (WFE) dynamics at the sub-country level are not considered; 2) have not systematically studied spatiotemporal dynamics of water quantity differentiating green from blue, and fossil from renewable water in the assessment of both water supply and consumption; and 3) have not assessed the environmental impacts of VWT including water quality degradation in the same analytical framework. All of these theoretical gaps have contributed to a large uncertainty in the feasibility of the VWT in regional water management. I propose to study the virtual water issues at the sub-country level, by taking Canadian Prairie Region as a case study. I plan to examine an "environmentally informed VWT (EI-VWT)" by considering natural physical processes and anthropogenic factors affecting the WFE and trade relationships. The short-term (5 yrs) goal of my DG research program is to adapt ecohydro(geo)logical models, to assess dynamics of water, food, and trade relationships; and to develop a framework to examine the feasibility of EI-VWT as a management option at the sub-country level. My specific objectives are the spatial explicit and temporal assessments of: (1) Water supply, physical crop yield, and crop water consumption discriminating blue, green, fossil and renewable resources at a regional scale. Multi-model comparison and integration/improvement of the key processes into regional models including glacier, frozen soil, groundwater interactions, as well as climate change impacts will be tested. (2) Water quality, including nutrient and sediment load and transport, at the regional scale. (3) Water, food, and trade dynamics for the examination of EI-VWT. The long-term (5-15 yrs) goal of my HQP driven research program is to advance the framework by integration of 1) processes related to energy production and trade, and their cumulative impacts; 2) socioeconomic factors and local conditions that are important in shaping regional WFE, and trade policies; and 3) extreme events under both high frequency and lower frequency climatic oscillations. The proposed research will address knowledge gaps that of an integrated understanding of water quantity and quality processes and relation with dynamics of WFE trade in the examination of VWT strategy for regional water management. This study is unique - one of the first in VWT literature in terms of comprehensiveness, integration, and approaches examined in an export-oriented region of diverse natural and economic conditions (e.g. Western Canada).