Uncertainty Quantification for Probabilistic Stability Analysis and Uncertainty-Aware Control of Electric Power Systems

电力系统的不稳定性是社会所不能接受的，因为它们不仅成本极高，而且会严重破坏人们的日常生活和基本服务的提供（例如，食品、保健）。风能和太阳能等间歇性可再生能源的渗透给电网带来了高度的不确定性，这与影响数百万人并造成数十亿美元损失的严重停电有关。许多现实生活中的事件（例如，2019年8月，英国因Hornsea海上风电场故障而停电）表明，系统地调查不确定性对电力系统稳定性的影响并设计有效措施以减轻不确定性的不利影响是必要的和必要的。利用先进的元建模方法，统计学习和基于方差的全局灵敏度分析，该研究旨在开发新的概率稳定评估方法，以量化的不确定性对电力系统暂态和电压稳定的影响，并设计不确定性感知控制措施，以减轻不确定性对暂态和电压稳定的负面影响。具体而言，本文的近期目标有三个：（1）设计一种能够准确、有效地量化不确定性对电力系统暂态稳定性影响的概率稳定评估方法;（2）设计一种能够准确、有效地量化不确定性对电力系统电压稳定性影响的概率稳定评估方法;（3）设计不确定性感知控制措施，分别减轻不确定性对电力系统暂态稳定和电压稳定的影响。为实现这三个目标，将培养2名博士生和2名硕士生，完成六项任务。拟议研究的长期目标是开发一种概率范式，其中分析方法和计算工具用于评估各种类型的稳定性（例如，频率稳定性、小信号稳定性、变换器驱动稳定性（除暂态和电压稳定性外），并设计了有效的控制措施，以减轻不确定性对各种稳定特性的负面影响。加拿大已经制定了一个目标，到2030年将零排放源的比例从80%提高到90%，到2050年提高到近100%，通过清洁供应，简化运输，商业化储能系统等，拟议研究的成果将有助于通过促进可再生能源和电动汽车的无缝集成来推进加拿大的能源转型。管理电力行业的不确定性，指导储能系统的部署，为所有加拿大人提供清洁，可靠和负担得起的电力，协助加拿大到2050年实现近100%的可再生电力。

Power system instabilities are unacceptable to society as they are not only extremely costly but also profoundly disrupt people's daily lives and the delivery of essential services (e.g., food, health care). The penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, introduces high uncertainty to power grids, which has been linked with severe power blackouts affecting millions of people and costing billions of dollars. Many real-life events (e.g., UK's power blackout in Aug. 2019 due to the failure of Hornsea offshore wind farm) demonstrate that it is essential and imperative to investigate systematically the impacts of uncertainty on power system stability and design effective measures to mitigate the adverse impacts of uncertainty. Leveraging on advanced metamodeling method, statistical learning and variance-based global sensitivity analysis, the proposed research aims to develop novel probabilistic stability assessment methods to quantify the impacts of uncertainty on power system transient and voltage stability, and design uncertainty-aware control measures to mitigate the negative impacts of uncertainty on the transient and voltage stability. Particularly, there are three short-term objectives: (1) design a probabilistic stability assessment method to quantify the impacts of uncertainty on power system transient stability accurately and efficiently; (2) design a probabilistic stability assessment method to quantify the impacts of uncertainty on power system voltage stability accurately and efficiently; (3) design uncertainty-aware control measures to mitigate the impacts of uncertainty on power system transient stability and voltage stability, respectively. To fulfill the three objectives, 2 PhD students and 2 Master's students will be trained to complete six tasks. The long-term goal of the proposed research is to develop a probabilistic paradigm, in which analytical methods and computational tools for the assessments of various types of stability (e.g., frequency stability, small-signal stability, converter-driven stability besides transient and voltage stability) are developed, and effective control measures for the mitigation of the negative impacts of uncertainty on various stability properties are designed. Canada has set a goal of increasing the share of zero-emitting sources from 80% to 90% by 2030 and to nearly 100% by 2050, by cleaning the supply, electrifying the transport, commercializing energy storage systems, etc. The outcomes of the proposed research will contribute to advancing Canada's energy transition by promoting the seamless integration of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, managing uncertainty in the power industry, guiding the deployment of energy storage systems to deliver clean, reliable and affordable electricity to all Canadians, assisting Canada in moving towards nearly 100% renewable-based electricity by 2050.