Integrating Polynomial Chaos Expansion Method into DSATools for the Assessment of Probabilistic Available Transfer Capability******

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DSATools is a suite of power system analysis tools providing the capabilities for a complete assessment of system security and stability. DSATools is beyond all doubt a leader in the field because of its rich modelling capabilities, advanced computational methods, and comprehensive features. However, as the renewable energy sources (RES) continue penetrating into the power grid, it is of paramount importance to move from the conventional deterministic analysis framework to a probabilistic one so as to investigate the impacts of randomness brought about by various RES (e.g., wind and solar). Indeed, the randomness of RES may result in a big reduction in the available delivery/transfer capability of a power system. This project aims to integrate the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method with the Voltage Security Assessment Tool (VSAT), a core toolset of DSATools, to assess the probabilistic available transfer capability (ATC) of power systems efficiently and accurately. The outcomes of the project will not only enable DSATools to conveniently incorporate the uncertainty of RES generations and loads into the assessment of ATC, but also provide the users with essential information about the probabilistic characteristics (mean, variance, probabilistic density function, etc.) of ATC. Such important information will assist the users in determining the ATC in a more efficient manner to fully utilize the transmission assets while maintaining the security of the grid.****