Disruption Risk Management in Multi-Echelon Supply Networks

供应链的全球化和供应链合作伙伴之间相互依赖的增加导致了更复杂的供应网络，这可能会加剧供应链合作伙伴中断的影响。此外，最近中断的频率和程度有所增加，许多公司更加关注他们管理风险和应对中断的能力。例如，全球采购研究发现，80%的公司容易受到重大中断的影响。此外，很难预测中断和发生后，它们会对公司造成巨大的负面财务影响，从中断恢复到正常状态通常是缓慢的。因此，如果没有适当的缓解和恢复战略，供应链在从中断中恢复时可能会遭受重大损失。这导致许多供应链重新考虑他们的供应网络配置。例如，在2011年日本地震之后，主要汽车制造商开始询问他们的供应网络应该如何设计，特别是通过增加库存、增加产能或冗余设施来增加冗余的问题。现有文献假设了单一类型的缓解或恢复策略，并考虑了已知的破坏因素。本研究旨在通过发展数学模型、分析方法和解决技术来解决这一差距：(1)更好地估计中断和恢复概率/率，并开发即使在中断参数未知时也能有效执行的模型；(2)开发一种系统方法来管理中断发生在一个以上级别且不同级别中断的影响可能是依赖的多级供应系统中的中断；(3)同时制定多种缓解和恢复战略，并研究多种战略方法的价值。这项研究的结果将为加拿大公司的研究人员和从业人员提供见解，开发一种全面的方法来管理中断，并提高在中断前和中断后时期做出的决策的有效性。最后，高素质人才（包括博士和硕士学生）将接受供应链管理、风险管理、随机规划和大规模优化方面的培训，为他们在学术界和工业界的就业做好准备。

The globalization of supply chains and increased interdependence among the supply chain partners have resulted in more complex supply networks that can exacerbate the effect of disruptions on the supply chain partners. Also, the frequency and extent of the disruption have increased lately and many companies have become more concerned about their ability to manage risks and respond to the disruptions. For example, the Global Procurement Study found that 80% of companies are vulnerable to a major disruption. In addition, it is very difficult to anticipate disruptions and after occurrence, they cause huge negative financial impacts for companies and recovery from disruption to return to normal conditions is often slow. Therefore, without proper mitigation and recovery strategies, supply chains may suffer significant losses while recovering from disruptions. This has led many supply chains to reconsider their supply network configuration. For example, after the 2011 earthquake in Japan the major auto manufacturers starts asking questions about how their supply network should be designed, in particular the question of adding redundancy through either extra inventory, extra capacity or redundant facilities.The existing literature assumes a single type of mitigation or recovery strategies and considers the known disruption factors. This research aims to address this gap by developing mathematical models, analytical approaches and solution techniques to: (1) better estimation of disruption and recovery probabilities/rates and develop models that perform effective even when the disruption parameters are unknown, (2) develop a systematic approach to manage disruptions in multi echelon supply systems that disruption happens in more than one level and impact of disruptions in different levels may be dependent, and (3) develop multi mitigation and recovery strategies simultaneously and study the value of multi strategies approach. The outcomes of this research will provide insight for researchers and practitioners of Canadian companies, develop a comprehensive methodology to manage disruptions and enhance the effectiveness of the decisions which are made for pre- and post-disruption periods. Finally, High Quality Personnel (both PhD and MSc students) will be trained in supply chain management, risk management, stochastic programming and large-scale optimization that will prepare them for employment in academics and industry.