Investigating supply chain contracts under weather-sensitive demand

天气的变化不仅影响日常生活，而且通过影响消费者对许多产品的需求和影响其他产品的质量，给企业带来财务风险。鼓励零售商在季节开始前很久就下单购买对天气敏感的产品，但历史表明，意外的天气模式（例如异常温和的冬季）可能导致需求大幅下降，给公司带来巨大损失，并影响整体经济活动。例如，2005年6月，沃尔玛报告称，低于正常水平的气温导致其对天气敏感的产品的库存水平高于正常水平。众所周知，在供应链管理中，错误的产品在错误的时间、错误的地点库存是要花钱的。70%的美国公司的产品对天气很敏感，大约一半的GDP受到天气的影响。为了尽量减少对天气敏感的需求所带来的风险，金融市场在1999年推出了一种叫做天气衍生品的金融工具。天气衍生品允许公司将其天气风险以期权、期货或互换的形式转移给愿意承担风险的另一方。这些衍生品的价值来自于一个潜在的变量——在天气、温度、降雨或降雪的情况下。推出天气衍生品的芝加哥商品交易所（CME） 2007年的天气衍生品交易额为320亿美元。令人惊讶的是，很少有人对供应链中的天气风险进行研究。这项研究将首次调查天气状况的一种测量方法——温度——如何影响供应链，考虑到对天气敏感的需求，供应链如何更好地协调，以及如何通过使用天气衍生品对冲天气风险来优化供应链合同。它将制定理论和指导方针，使零售商能够实施供应链管理战略，风险对冲和合同，以最大限度地降低成本。最近，包括沃尔玛（Walmart）、罗纳（Rona）和家得宝（Home Depot）在内的零售商，以及包括杜克电力（Duke Power）和Progress energy在内的能源公司，在预测产品需求以制定供应链决策时，都开始考虑天气信息。鉴于天气风险在供应链合同中的重要性和重要性日益增加，这项研究不仅将在帮助精明的零售商和生产商将下行风险降至最低方面发挥关键作用，而且还将增强这一领域的研究知识。

Changes in weather not only affect daily lives but also pose financial risks to businesses by influencing consumer demand for many products and affecting the quality of others. Retailers are encouraged to place orders for weather-sensitive products long before a season starts, but history has shown that unexpected weather patterns (an abnormally mild winter, for example) can result in significant drops in demand, leading to huge losses for companies and impacting overall economic activity. In June 2005, for example, Walmart reported that below-normal temperatures had caused a higher-than-normal inventory level in its weather-sensitive products. It is well understood in supply chain management that inventory of the wrong product in the wrong place at the wrong time costs money. The products of 70% of American companies are weather sensitive, and about half of its GDP is affected by weather. To minimize the risk from weather-sensitive demand, in 1999 the financial market introduced a financial instrument called the weather derivative. Weather derivatives allow a corporation to transfer its weather risk to another party willing to absorb it in the form of options, futures or swaps. The value of such derivatives is derived from an underlying variable - in the case of weather, temperature, rainfall, or snowfall. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which introduced weather derivatives, traded $32B in weather derivatives in 2007. Surprisingly, little research has been done on weather risk in supply chains. This research will be the first to investigate how one measurement of weather condition - temperature - affects the supply chain, how supply chains may be better coordinated considering weather-sensitive demand, and how supply chain contracts can be optimized by hedging weather risk using weather derivatives. It will develop theories and guidelines so retailers can implement supply chain management strategies, risk hedging, and contracts that minimize costs. Recently, retailers including Walmart, Rona and Home Depot, and energy companies including Duke Power and Progress Energy have moved towards taking weather information into account when predicting product demand to make supply chain decisions. Acknowledging the increasing importance and magnitude of weather risk in supply chain contracts, this research will not only play a critical role in helping astute retailers and producers minimize downside risk, but also enhance research knowledge in this area.