An Integrated Assessment of Hydroclimate Risks for Prince Edward Island

目前有大量证据表明，气候变化和极端天气事件在加拿大呈上升趋势，这可能给政府、企业乃至所有加拿大人带来不断增加的成本。爱德华王子岛（PEI）尤其如此，因为我们每天都能看到更多极端天气事件、海平面上升和沿海洪水的证据。在我们为减少温室气体排放尽自己的一份力量的同时，我们确实需要考虑如何在未来几年适应不断变化的气候。这要求我们在充分了解未来气候变化对我们的社区、基础设施、流域和生态系统的潜在影响的基础上，做出明智的适应性决策。因此，该项目的主要目标是通过UPEI气候研究实验室和PEI环境，水和气候变化部门之间的合作伙伴关系，对PEI的短期和长期气候和水文风险进行全面评估。特别是，将为PEI全岛开发空间分辨率为1km的高分辨率气候情景；通过开发新的洪水预测模型，评估PEI地区暴雨下的洪水风险；未来气候变化对所有PEI流域水资源、水质和土壤侵蚀的影响将通过开发水文气候集合模型框架进行评估。该项目的结果最终将通过开发基于地理信息系统和网络的水文气候数据门户与公众分享。该项目的成果将为PEI气候变化行动计划的实施提供科学依据。

There is now overwhelming evidence that climate change and extreme weather events are on the rise in Canada, which can bring ever-increasing costs to governments, businesses, and ultimately all Canadians. This is particularly true for Prince Edward Island (PEI) as every day we see the evidence in more extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and coastal flooding. While we are doing our part to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,we really need to think about how to adapt to the changing climate in the coming years. This requires us to make informed adaptative decisions which relies on a full understanding of the potential impacts of future climate change on our communities, infrastructures, watersheds, and ecosystems. Therefore, the main objective of this project is to carry out a comprehensive assessment of short-term and long-term climate and hydrologic risks across PEI through a partnership between UPEI Climate Research Lab and PEI Department of Environment, Water and Climate Change. In particular, high-resolution climate scenarios with a spatial resolution of 1km will be developed for the entire island of PEI; flooding risks under heavy rainfalls across PEI will be evaluated through the development of a new flood prediction model; and impacts of future climate change on water resources, water quality, and soil erosion for all PEI watersheds will be assessed through the development of an hydroclimate ensemble modeling framework. The results from this project will be eventually shared with the public through the development of a GIS- and web-based hydroclimate data portal. The outcomes from this project will provide a scientific basis for implementing the PEI Climate Change Action Plan.