Predicting the effects of climate change on the microbial and chemical control of agricultural pests such as obliquebanded leafroller in apple

控制农业害虫对加拿大农业部门的成功和可持续发展至关重要。然而，气候变化威胁着这一目标。据预测，气候变化将改变农药杀死农业害虫的能力。例如，热浪在加拿大的频率正在增加（加拿大气候图集，https://climateatlas.ca），它会影响害虫对化学（如Janssens等人，2017）和微生物（如Seehausen等人，2017）控制剂的敏感性。本文旨在研究热浪对苹果斜带叶卷虫（OBLR）的化学和微生物防治效果的影响。为了能够预测热浪对obr和其他害虫的影响，我们需要了解热浪如何改变昆虫的生理机能。我们将使用分子、生化和生理学方法来量化这种效应。我们还将直接测试农药对obr的影响，并将这些数据与生理数据联系起来。我们将利用这些信息为苹果种植者开发一个预测模型。它将允许农民在热浪期间和之后调整他们的农药使用，以最少所需的农药提供最大限度的控制。我们将为苹果种植者提供易于使用的格式（例如iPhone应用程序）。虽然本提案的重点将放在森林虫害上，但本研究将为在极端天气事件（如热浪）期间开发其他农业害虫的类似模型提供一个框架。我们已经组建了一支拥有必要的科学和数学专业知识的团队。我们与AAFC的科学家合作，他们将对实验室开发的解决方案进行严格的现场测试，以确定其对现实世界情况的适用性。该小组的AAFC成员还与食品生产商有联系，可以将实验室和实地研究转化为有用的解决方案（即害虫管理实践的变化）。

Controlling agricultural pests is critical for the success and sustainability of Canada's agricultural sector. However, climate change threatens this goal. Climate change is predicted to alter the ability of pesticides to kill agricultural pests. For example, heat waves, whose frequency in Canada is increasing (Climate Atlas of Canada, https://climateatlas.ca), can affect the sensitivity of insect pests to chemical (e.g. Janssens et al., 2017) and microbial (e.g. Seehausen et al., 2017) control agents. We propose to demonstrate how heat waves will impact the effectiveness of chemical and microbial control agents of the Obliqebanded Leafroller (OBLR) (Choristoneura rosaceana), a pest of apple trees. To be able to predict the effect of heat waves on OBLR, and other pests, we need to understand how heat waves alter insect physiology. We will use molecular, biochemical, and physiological methods to quantify this effect. We will also test the effect of pesticides on OBLR directly and correlate these data with the physiological data. We will use this information to develop a predictive model for apple growers. It will allow farmers to adjust their pesticide use during and after a heat wave to provide maximum control with the minimum required pesticide. We will provide this information in an easy-to-use format for apple growers (e.g. iPhone app). Although the focus of this proposal will be on OBLR, this study will provide a framework for the development of similar models for other agricultural pests during extreme weather events (i.e. heat waves). We have assembled a team that has the necessary scientific and mathematical expertise. We have partnered with scientists from AAFC who will rigorously field test solutions that are developed in the lab to determine their applicability to real world situations. The AAFC members of the team also have connections to food producers and can translate lab and field research into useful solutions (i.e. changes in pest management practice).