Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market
Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market
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电力市场可再生能源脱碳下的投资风险与回报
DOI：
10.1080/14693062.2012.750473
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Muñoz J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Muñoz J
财务绩效风险如何影响对低碳发电技术的投资，以实现气候政策目标？在英国批发电力市场的价格形成的详细风险模拟表明，越来越多的替代化石设施与风，其他条件不变，可能会导致恶化的金融风险回报绩效指标的增量投资。低碳投资似乎是高风险、低回报的，因此，随着时间的推移，可能需要比传统递减轨迹所设想的逐步更高水平的支持。如果投资者需要满足谨慎的债务覆盖率和积极的预期回报，批发市场风险的增加将在一定程度上抵消资本成本和运营效率降低的好处。这种增加的风险是对低碳投资的众所周知的“优序效应”的补充，这种优序效应逐步压低批发价格，从而压低其预期投资回报。但是，平准化成本没有充分考虑到投资者在实践中可能存在的风险规避。由于间歇性技术给电力市场带来的财务业绩风险增加，预期的政策支持减少可能在一定程度上有所缓和。随着风能取代化石燃料，所有技术的增量投资的年度风险回报情况都在恶化。在评估脱碳电力市场新投资的政策激励措施时，需要考虑这种额外的风险溢价。
How does financial performance risk affect investments in low-carbon electricity-generating technologies to achieve climate policy targets? A detailed risk simulation of price formation in the Great Britain wholesale power market is used to show that the increasing replacement of fossil facilities with wind,ceteris paribus, may cause a deterioration of the financial risk–return performance metrics for incremental investments. Low-carbon investments appear to be high risk, low return, and as such may require a progressively higher level of support over time than envisaged by the conventional degression trajectories. The increasing riskiness of the wholesale market will to some extent offset the benefits of lower capital costs and operational efficiencies if investors need to satisfy cautious debt coverage ratios alongside positive expected returns. This increased risk is additional to the well-known ‘merit order effect’ of low-carbon investments progressively depressing wholesale prices and hence their expected investment returns.Policy relevancePolicy support for renewable technologies such as wind is usually based upon levelized costs and is expected to reduce over time as capital costs and operational efficiencies improve. However, levelized costs do not take full account of the risk aversion that investors may have in practice. Expected policy support reductions may be moderated to some extent by the increased financial performance risk that intermittent technologies bring to the power market. The annual risk-return profiles for incremental investments deteriorate for all technologies as wind replaces fossil fuels. This extra risk premium will need to be incorporated into evaluating policy incentives for new investments in a decarbonizing power market.
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