The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.
The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envint.2017.08.001
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发表时间：
2017-11
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Liu Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stowell JD;Kim YM;Gao Y;Fu JS;Chang HH;Liu Y
大量证据表明，从工业革命到现在，人类活动影响着地面臭氧（O3）浓度。过去的研究表明O3暴露与健康之间的联系。然而，在我们理解减缓气候变化政策对O3浓度和健康的影响方面仍然存在知识差距。使用混合降尺度方法，我们评估了气候变化和排放控制政策对O3水平的单独影响，以及21世纪50年代美国在两个代表性浓度路径（RCP）下的相关超额死亡率。我们表明，到21世纪50年代，根据RCP4.5，由于气候变化和排放控制政策的结合，O3水平的增加，可能会导致美国全国每年增加约50例过早死亡。然而，最大的影响出现在RCP8.5下，其中O3浓度的上升预计每年将导致2，200多人过早死亡。O3的最大增幅出现在美国东北部、东南部、中部和西部地区的RCP8.5中。此外，当O3的增加分别由气候变化和排放贡献进行审查时，减排努力的好处可能会大大超过气候变化缓解政策对O3相关死亡率的影响。
Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O3-related mortality.
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影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Gao Y;Fu JS;Drake JB;Lamarque JF;Liu Y
通讯作者：
Liu Y
DOI：
10.1080/10962247.2015.1106991
发表时间：
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影响因子：
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