Is sex ratio at birth an appropriate measure of prenatal sex selection? Findings of a theoretical model and its application to India.
Is sex ratio at birth an appropriate measure of prenatal sex selection? Findings of a theoretical model and its application to India.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000675
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Sivia DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dubuc S;Sivia DS
重男轻女和产前性别选择导致了严重的出生性别比失衡，这在包括印度和中国在内的几个亚洲国家都有充分的记录。SRB偏差通常被用作产前性别选择对女性的程度和趋势的指标。生育率下降预计会增加性别选择，从而增加SRB偏见，因为希望少生孩子会增加家庭没有儿子的风险（生育挤压效应）。我们开发并采用数学模型，将家庭规模，出生顺序和生育策略与人口SRB偏差联系起来。我们发现，SRB的偏见可以增加，尽管发生较少的性别选择干预，与生育挤压效应的预期不一致。我们发现，生育率降低的反作用放大了SRB偏差，除了生育率挤压效应，使SRB偏差的人口内的性别选择实践的变化是一个不准确的指标。我们建议使用性别选择倾向（夫妇干预的比例）来衡量行为变化，并评估针对性别选择做法的政策。我们将我们的研究结果应用于印度，例如，旁遮普和德里的性别选择倾向低于拉贾斯坦邦或北方邦，尽管前者的SRB偏见显着较高。虽然我们观察到2005-2010年期间印度SRB的持续总体增长，但我们的研究结果表明，产前性别选择倾向在此期间开始下降。
Son preference and prenatal sex selection against females have resulted in significant sex ratio at birth (SRB) imbalances well documented in several Asian countries, including India and China. The SRB bias is generally used as indicator for the extent and trends of prenatal sex selection against females. Decreasing fertility levels are expected to increase sex selection and thus SRB bias, since desiring fewer children increases the risk for families to remain sonless (fertility squeeze effect). We developed and employ mathematical models linking family size, birth order and childbearing strategies with population SRB bias. We show that SRB bias can increase despite fewer sex selection interventions occurring, inconsistent with the expectation of the fertility squeeze effect. We show that a disproportionality effect of fertility reduction amplifies SRB bias, in addition to the fertility squeeze effect, making SRB bias an inaccurate indicator for changes in sex selection practices within a population. We propose to use sex selection propensity (proportion of couples intervening) to measure behavioural change and evaluate policies targeting sex selection practices. We apply our findings to India, showing for instance that sex selection propensity in Punjab and Delhi was lower than in Rajasthan or Uttar Pradesh, despite significantly higher SRB bias in the former. While we observe a continuous overall increase in the SRB over the 2005–2010 period in India, our results indicate that prenatal sex selection propensity started declining during that period.
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