Economic and physical determinants of the global distributions of crop pests and pathogens.
Economic and physical determinants of the global distributions of crop pests and pathogens.
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DOI：
10.1111/nph.12722
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发表时间：
2014-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gurr SJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bebber DP;Holmes T;Smith D;Gurr SJ
农作物害虫和病原体对粮食安全构成了日益严重的威胁，但人们对其地理分布知之甚少。我们提出了一个全球分析的害虫和病原体的分布，以确定社会经济和生物物理因素在确定害虫的多样性，控制国家之间的观测能力的变化的作用。从CABI获得了1901种害虫和病原体的已知分布。线性模型被用来划分预测之间的变化，在每个国家的害虫物种。报告的虫害数量随着人均国内生产总值、研究支出和研究能力的增加而增加，经济因素对微生物的影响大于节肢动物。作物总产量和作物多样性是每个国家害虫数量最强的物理预测因素，但一旦控制其他因素，贸易和旅游业就微不足道了。岛屿报告的虫害比大陆国家多，但物种丰富度没有明显的纬度梯度。正如入侵物种研究所解释的那样，国家财富可能是观测能力的一个强有力的指标，而不仅仅是贸易流量。如果每个国家的人均GDP都达到美国的水平，那么每个国家将报告205 ± 9个额外的害虫，这表明加强对害虫观测的投资将揭示作物害虫和病原体的潜在威胁。
Crop pests and pathogens pose a significant and growing threat to food security, but their geographical distributions are poorly understood. We present a global analysis of pest and pathogen distributions, to determine the roles of socioeconomic and biophysical factors in determining pest diversity, controlling for variation in observational capacity among countries. Known distributions of 1901 pests and pathogens were obtained from CABI. Linear models were used to partition the variation in pest species per country amongst predictors. Reported pest numbers increased with per capita gross domestic product (GDP), research expenditure and research capacity, and the influence of economics was greater in micro-organisms than in arthropods. Total crop production and crop diversity were the strongest physical predictors of pest numbers per country, but trade and tourism were insignificant once other factors were controlled. Islands reported more pests than mainland countries, but no latitudinal gradient in species richness was evident. Country wealth is likely to be a strong indicator of observational capacity, not just trade flow, as has been interpreted in invasive species studies. If every country had US levels of per capita GDP, then 205 ± 9 additional pests per country would be reported, suggesting that enhanced investment in pest observations will reveal the hidden threat of crop pests and pathogens.
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影响因子：
4.8
作者：
HURLBERT, SH
通讯作者：
HURLBERT, SH
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1011728108
发表时间：
2011-01-04
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Essl, Franz;Dullinger, Stefan;Pysek, Petr
通讯作者：
Pysek, Petr
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Flood, Julie
通讯作者：
Flood, Julie
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Fisher, Matthew C.;Henk, Daniel. A.;Briggs, Cheryl J.;Brownstein, John S.;Madoff, Lawrence C.;McCraw, Sarah L.;Gurr, Sarah J.
通讯作者：
Gurr, Sarah J.
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Diez, Jeffrey M.;Williams, Peter A.;Duncan, Richard P.
通讯作者：
Duncan, Richard P.