A Periodic West Nile Virus Transmission Model with Stage-Structured Host Population

A Periodic West Nile Virus Transmission Model with Stage-Structured Host Population
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具有阶段结构宿主群体的周期性西尼罗河病毒传播模型

DOI:
10.1155/2020/2050587
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发表时间:
2020-01
期刊:
影响因子:
2.3
通讯作者:
Qiaoling Chen
Qiaoling Chen
中科院分区:
工程技术4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Junli Liu;Tailei Zhang;Qiaoling Chen

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在本文中,我们研究了禽(宿主)阶段结构的西尼罗河病毒模型,其中包括季节性以及特定阶段的蚊子叮咬率。我们首先引入了该模型的基本再生数,然后证明了无病周期解是全局渐近稳定的,当存在至少一个正周期解时,疾病是一致持久的,如果.在所有系数都是常数的情况下,对于一种特殊的情形,我们得到了无病平衡点的全局稳定性,地方病平衡点的唯一性,以及疾病关于基本再生数的持久性.数值模拟验证了分析结果。进行了敏感性分析。我们的发现表明,青少年接触的增加将导致更严重的传播。此外,我们发现忽略季节性可能会导致低估的基本再生数。
In this paper, we study an avian (host) stage-structured West Nile virus model, which incorporates seasonality as well as stage-specific mosquito biting rates. We first introduce the basic reproduction number for this model and then show that the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable when , while there exists at least one positive periodic solution and that the disease is uniformly persistent if . In the case where all coefficients are constants, for a special case, we obtain the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium, the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium, and the permanence of the disease in terms of the basic reproduction number . Numerical simulations are carried out to verify the analytic result. Some sensitivity analysis of is performed. Our finding shows that an increase in juvenile exposure will lead to more severe transmission. Moreover, we find that the ignorance of the seasonality may result in underestimation of the basic reproduction number .
西尼罗河病毒传播的两斑模型
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