The illusion of replacement in research into the development of thinking biases: the case of the conjunction fallacy
The illusion of replacement in research into the development of thinking biases: the case of the conjunction fallacy
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思维偏差发展研究中的替代错觉：合取谬误的案例
DOI：
10.1080/20445911.2016.1256294
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Morsanyi K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morsanyi K
合取谬误违反了一个非常基本的概率规则。有趣的是，尽管犯下这个谬误似乎是不合理的，但成年人对这个谬误的敏感度并不比儿童低。在实验1中，采用的任务，其中的连接反应选项涉及两个非代表性的项目，我们发现了一个很大的减少谬误率相比，传统的连接谬误问题。尽管如此，青少年和成年人的谬误率仍然相对较高，尽管成年人在他们的规范性反应中表现出更大的一致性。在实验2中，我们证明了儿童在任务上相对较好的表现并不是他们缺乏社会刻板印象知识的结果。此外，儿童比成人更强烈地受到明确呈现的频率信息的影响。事实上，成年人只有在概率推理训练使频率变得相关时才会考虑频率信息。总体而言，结果表明，虽然规范性推理的潜力随着发展而增加，但这种潜力往往被青少年和成年人依赖上下文信息，知识和信仰的普遍趋势所掩盖，即使有冲突的信息。相比之下，儿童更强烈的影响，明确提出的信息比相关的知识线索的任务。
The conjunction fallacy is a violation of a very basic rule of probability. Interestingly, although committing the fallacy seems irrational, adults are no less susceptible to the fallacy than young children. In Experiment 1, by employing tasks where the conjunctive response option involved two non-representative items, we found a large reduction in fallacy rates as compared to traditional conjunction fallacy problems. Nevertheless, fallacy rates remained relatively high in both adolescents and adults, although adults showed more consistency in their normative responses. In Experiment 2, we demonstrated that children’s relatively good performance on the task was not the consequence of their missing knowledge of social stereotypes. Additionally, children were more strongly affected by explicitly presented frequency information than adults. Indeed, adults only took frequency information into account when frequencies were made relevant by a training in probabilistic reasoning. Overall, the results suggest that whereas the potential for normative reasoning increases with development, this potential is often overshadowed by a pervasive tendency in adolescence and adulthood to rely on contextual information, knowledge, and beliefs, even when conflicting information is available. By contrast, children are more strongly influenced by explicitly presented information than relevant knowledge cued by the tasks.
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