Rising Educational Participation and the Trend to Later Childbearing.
Rising Educational Participation and the Trend to Later Childbearing.
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DOI：
10.1111/padr.12112
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发表时间：
2017-12
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Beaujouan É
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Neels K;Murphy M;Ní Bhrolcháin M;Beaujouan É
教育参与率的增长能在多大程度上解释发达国家转向晚育的原因？几十年来，晚育一直是发达国家生育率趋势的一个显著特征，在同一时期，教育参与率大幅上升(经合组织2014年，2016a)。出生年龄的上升通常被描述为生育延迟，主要是由于开始生育的时间越来越晚。越来越少的妇女在十几岁和20岁出头时组建家庭，更多的妇女将开始为人父母的时间推迟到20多岁和30多岁(d‘Addio和Mira d’Ercole，2005年；经合组织，2006b)。其结果是，年轻时无子女妇女的第一次生育率下降，在大多数情况下，在较大年龄时，特定于父母的生育率上升，导致育儿时间表的年龄尺度普遍上移。在西方，初次生育的平均年龄在1970年代开始上升；在东欧，随着政治和社会转型，这一趋势始于1990年代(见图1a和1b)。晚育最近成为东南亚和拉丁美洲人口趋势的一个特征(Rosero-Bixby等人)。2009年；Frejka等人。发达国家推迟生育的现象是相当大和持续的。这具有人口统计学上的重要性，原因有很多。首次生育平均年龄的变化使得生育率的时间趋势更难解释。最广泛用于衡量这种趋势的指标--时期总生育率(TFR)--受到生育节奏变化的影响。节拍的变化增加了评估总生育率趋势在多大程度上反映生育率水平变化的难度，或者只是反映生育率水平的变化，或者只是反映生育率的时间变化，或者反映两者的某种组合。在过去的二十年里，人们对这个问题进行了大量的技术创新和辩论(特别是见Bongaart和Feeney，1998年及相关评论；Schoen，2004年；Barbi等人的几章。2008年；2011年，尼布罗查)。延期
HOW FAR CAN THE shift to later childbearing in developed countries be accounted for by the growth in educational participation? A move to later childbearing has been a conspicuous feature of fertility trends in developed countries for many decades, and over that same period educational participation rates have risen substantially (OECD 2014, 2016a). The rising age at birth is often described as fertility postponement and is primarily due to a progressively later start to childbearing. Fewer women have been starting a family in their teens and early 20s and more have been delaying the start of parenthood to their late 20s and 30s (d’Addio and Mira d’Ercole 2005; OECD 2016b). The consequence is a decline in the first birth rates of childless women at younger ages, followed, in most cases, by a rise in parityspecific rates at older ages, resulting in a general shift up the age scale in the timetable of parenthood. In the West, the mean age at first birth began rising in the 1970s; in Eastern Europe, the trend began in the 1990s, following political and societal transformation (see Figures 1a and 1b). Later childbearing is emerging more recently as a feature of population trends in Southeast Asia and Latin America (Rosero-Bixby et al. 2009; Frejka et al. 2010).The postponement of childbearing in developed countries has been sizable and sustained. This has demographic importance for a number of reasons. Change in the mean age at first birth makes time trends in fertility harder to interpret. The indicator most widely used to measure such trends, the period total fertility rate (TFR), is influenced by shifts in fertility tempo. Tempo change increases the difficulty of assessing the extent to which trends in the TFR reflect change in the level of fertility or only in its timing, or in some combination of the two. Considerable technical ingenuity and debate have been devoted to this problem in the last two decades (see especially Bongaarts and Feeney 1998 and associated commentary; Schoen 2004; several chapters in Barbi et al. 2008; Ní Bhrolcháin 2011). The postponement
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影响因子：
6.1
作者：
Amin, Vikesh;Behrman, Jere R.
通讯作者：
Behrman, Jere R.
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Bongaarts, J;Feeney, G
通讯作者：
Feeney, G
DOI：
10.1080/00324728.2012.697569
发表时间：
2012-11
期刊：
Population studies
影响因子：
--
作者：
Ní Bhrolcháin M;Beaujouan E
通讯作者：
Beaujouan E
DOI：
10.1057/pt.2011.21
发表时间：
2011-01-01
期刊：
Population trends
影响因子：
--
作者：
Beaujouan, Eva;Brown, James J;Ni Bhrolchain, Maire
通讯作者：
Ni Bhrolchain, Maire
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1107993108
发表时间：
2011-07-19
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Cohen, Joel E.;Kravdal, Oystein;Keilman, Nico
通讯作者：
Keilman, Nico