Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria.
Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543
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发表时间：
2023-11
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
拉沙热（Lf）是一种西非特有的病毒性出血性疾病，由拉沙乳房病毒引起。啮齿动物Mastomys natalensis作为主要水库，其生态和行为已被链接到不同的空间和时间模式的发病率Lf。尼日利亚经历了一场前所未有的疫情，从2018年1月持续到4月，此后每年同期都有Lf的后续疫情。虽然以前的研究模拟了尼日利亚的病例季节性，但这并没有捕捉到人畜共患病水库繁殖的季节性变化及其对病例数量的影响。为此，我们引入了一种近似贝叶斯计算方案，以使我们的模型与NCDC提供的2018-2020年案例数据相匹配。在这项研究中，我们使用了一个周期性强迫的季节性非自治系统的常微分方程作为向量模型，以证明啮齿动物水库的人口动态可能是负责在人类中观察到的病例数的峰值。结果显示，从12月到3月，人畜共患病水库的溢出急剧增加，并将病毒传播给尼日利亚人民。因此，为了有效地打击Lf，应在这一时期集中注意力和努力。拉沙热是一种在西非流行的病毒性疾病，Mastomys natalensis是主要的宿主。在尼日利亚，每年12月至次年3月爆发疫情。使用一种新的模型和2018-2020年的数据，我们证明了水库的人口动态有助于人类病例的激增。具体而言，在此期间，外溢传播急剧增加，突出表明需要集中努力和干预。了解水库的季节性动态对于尼日利亚有效的拉沙热控制和预防战略至关重要。
Lassa fever (Lf) is a viral haemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa and is caused by the Lassa mammarenavirus. The rodent Mastomys natalensis serves as the primary reservoir and its ecology and behaviour have been linked to the distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the incidence of Lf. Nigeria has experienced an unprecedented epidemic that lasted from January until April of 2018, which has been followed by subsequent epidemics of Lf in the same period every year since. While previous research has modelled the case seasonality within Nigeria, this did not capture the seasonal variation in the reproduction of the zoonotic reservoir and its effect on case numbers. To this end, we introduce an approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit our model to the case data from 2018–2020 supplied by the NCDC. In this study we used a periodically forced seasonal nonautonomous system of ordinary differential equations as a vector model to demonstrate that the population dynamics of the rodent reservoir may be responsible for the spikes in the number of observed cases in humans. The results show that in December through to March, spillover from the zoonotic reservoir drastically increases and spreads the virus to the people of Nigeria. Therefore to effectively combat Lf, attention and efforts should be concentrated during this period. Lassa fever is a viral disease prevalent in West Africa, with Mastomys natalensis serving as the primary reservoir. In Nigeria, annual outbreaks occur from December to March. Using a novel model and data from 2018–2020, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of the reservoir contribute to spikes in human cases. Specifically, spillover transmission increases drastically during this period, highlighting the need for concentrated efforts and interventions. Understanding the seasonal dynamics of the reservoir is crucial for effective Lassa fever control and prevention strategies in Nigeria.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Safronetz D;Sogoba N;Lopez JE;Maiga O;Dahlstrom E;Zivcec M;Feldmann F;Haddock E;Fischer RJ;Anderson JM;Munster VJ;Branco L;Garry R;Porcella SF;Schwan TG;Feldmann H
通讯作者：
Feldmann H
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.16-0675
发表时间：
2017-04
期刊：
The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bonwitt J;Sáez AM;Lamin J;Ansumana R;Dawson M;Buanie J;Lamin J;Sondufu D;Borchert M;Sahr F;Fichet-Calvet E;Brown H
通讯作者：
Brown H
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.1983.32.829
发表时间：
1983-01-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
KEENLYSIDE, RA;MCCORMICK, JB;JOHNSON, KM
通讯作者：
JOHNSON, KM
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Fichet-Calvet, Elisabeth;Rogers, David John
通讯作者：
Rogers, David John
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Fichet-Calvet, Elisabeth;Lecompte, Emilie;Ter Meulen, Jan
通讯作者：
Ter Meulen, Jan