Evaluating Effects of Dynamic Interventions to Control COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Guangdong, China.
Evaluating Effects of Dynamic Interventions to Control COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Guangdong, China.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph191610154
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发表时间：
2022-08-16
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Tao, Haiyan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Yuan;Liao, Chuyao;Zhuo, Li;Tao, Haiyan
不同病毒变种的出现、疫情的快速变化以及经济复苏的需求，都需要不断调整和优化COVID-19干预政策。为此目的，评估已经实施的不同政策的有效性是重要和必要的，这是优化的基础。虽然一些学者使用流行病学模型，如易感染-暴露-感染-清除（SEIR），进行评估，但这些模型可能是不准确的，因为这些模型往往忽略了传播率的时变性。这项研究提出了一种新的方案，使用名为iLSEIR-DRAM的新模型来评估动态COVID-19干预措施的效率。首先，我们改进了传统的LSEIR模型，采用了一个五参数的逻辑函数来描述传输速率的关键参数。然后，我们估计的参数，使用自适应马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）算法，它结合了延迟拒绝和自适应大都会采样器（DRAM）。最后，我们开发了一个新的量化指标来评估COVID-19干预措施的有效性，该指标基于中的参数，并考虑了传播率的下降程度和疫情拐点的出现时间。该方案已在广东省7个地市实施。我们发现iLSEIR-DRAM模型可以很好地追溯COVID-19的传播，在所有城市的模拟准确率超过95%。该指标成功地评价了历史干预效率，并使不同城市之间的效率具有可比性。比较结果表明，广州市实施的干预政策效果最好，这与公众的认知一致。本研究提出的效率评估方案易于实施，可能会促进COVID-19疫情的精准防控。
The emergence of different virus variants, the rapidly changing epidemic, and demands for economic recovery all require continual adjustment and optimization of COVID-19 intervention policies. For the purpose, it is both important and necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of different policies already in-place, which is the basis for optimization. Although some scholars have used epidemiological models, such as susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR), to perform evaluation, they might be inaccurate because those models often ignore the time-varying nature of transmission rate. This study proposes a new scheme to evaluate the efficiency of dynamic COVID-19 interventions using a new model named as iLSEIR-DRAM. First, we improved the traditional LSEIR model by adopting a five-parameter logistic function to depict the key parameter of transmission rate. Then, we estimated the parameters by using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which combines delayed rejection and adaptive metropolis samplers (DRAM). Finally, we developed a new quantitative indicator to evaluate the efficiency of COVID-19 interventions, which is based on parameters in and considers both the decreasing degree of the transmission rate and the emerging time of the epidemic inflection point. This scheme was applied to seven cities in Guangdong Province. We found that the iLSEIR-DRAM model can retrace the COVID-19 transmission quite well, with the simulation accuracy being over 95% in all cities. The proposed indicator succeeds in evaluating the historical intervention efficiency and makes the efficiency comparable among different cities. The comparison results showed that the intervention policies implemented in Guangzhou is the most efficient, which is consistent with public awareness. The proposed scheme for efficiency evaluation in this study is easy to implement and may promote precise prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic.
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影响因子：
2
作者：
Kemp F;Proverbio D;Aalto A;Mombaerts L;Fouquier d'Hérouël A;Husch A;Ley C;Gonçalves J;Skupin A;Magni S
通讯作者：
Magni S
DOI：
10.1016/j.puhip.2021.100121
发表时间：
2021-11
期刊：
Public health in practice (Oxford, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chadsuthi S;Modchang C
通讯作者：
Modchang C
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Gottschalk, PG;Dunn, JR
通讯作者：
Dunn, JR
DOI：
10.1016/j.jtumed.2015.11.005
发表时间：
2016-04-01
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Al-Haddad, Mahmoud S.;Abdallah, Qasem M.;Alshakhshir, Sami M.
通讯作者：
Alshakhshir, Sami M.
综合疫苗接种和保持身体距离干预措施，以防止中国城市未来出现新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 浪潮
影响因子：
29.9
作者：
Huang, Bo;Wang, Jionghua;Lai, Shengjie
通讯作者：
Lai, Shengjie