Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden.
Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110874
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发表时间：
2021-12-07
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Magni S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kemp F;Proverbio D;Aalto A;Mombaerts L;Fouquier d'Hérouël A;Husch A;Ley C;Gonçalves J;Skupin A;Magni S
针对COVID-19大流行，非药物干预措施已被广泛应用，疫苗接种也已开始。接下来的问题是疫苗接种和社会措施之间的相互作用将如何影响感染和住院。因此，我们扩展了易感暴露的危险性去除（SEIR）模型，包括这些元素。我们根据卢森堡、奥地利和瑞典的数据进行校准，直至2020年12月15日。瑞典的结果有最高比例的未被发现，卢森堡的感染和所有三个远离群体免疫在12月。我们对社会互动水平进行了量化，结果显示，在12月，这三个国家仍需要保持疫情前1/3左右的水平，才能将有效生殖数保持在1以下。要在1年内以恒定的速度为全体人口接种疫苗，卢森堡平均每天需要1，700人完全接种疫苗，奥地利需要24，000人，瑞典需要28，000人，并且只能在夏季中期实现群体免疫。如果疫苗推广速度太慢，2021年可能无法达到群体免疫。因此，该模型估计了哪些疫苗接种率太低，无法在2021年达到群体免疫，这取决于社会互动。接种疫苗将大大有助于遏制感染，但不是立即的;因此，限制社会交往在未来几个月仍然至关重要。
Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social measures will shape infections and hospitalizations. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including these elements. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden until 15 December 2020. Sweden results having the highest fraction of undetected, Luxembourg of infected and all three being far from herd immunity in December. We quantify the level of social interaction, showing that a level around 1/3 of before the pandemic was still required in December to keep the effective reproduction number below 1, for all three countries. Aiming to vaccinate the whole population within 1 year at constant rate would require on average 1,700 fully vaccinated people/day in Luxembourg, 24,000 in Austria and 28,000 in Sweden, and could lead to herd immunity only by mid summer. Herd immunity might not be reached in 2021 if too slow vaccines rollout speeds are employed. The model thus estimates which vaccination rates are too low to allow reaching herd immunity in 2021, depending on social interactions. Vaccination will considerably, but not immediately, help to curb the infection; thus limiting social interactions remains crucial for the months to come.
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影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Althouse BM;Wenger EA;Miller JC;Scarpino SV;Allard A;Hébert-Dufresne L;Hu H
通讯作者：
Hu H
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Good MF;Hawkes MT
通讯作者：
Hawkes MT
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Britton, Tom;Ball, Frank;Trapman, Pieter
通讯作者：
Trapman, Pieter
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2035389
发表时间：
2021-02-04
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Baden LR;El Sahly HM;Essink B;Kotloff K;Frey S;Novak R;Diemert D;Spector SA;Rouphael N;Creech CB;McGettigan J;Khetan S;Segall N;Solis J;Brosz A;Fierro C;Schwartz H;Neuzil K;Corey L;Gilbert P;Janes H;Follmann D;Marovich M;Mascola J;Polakowski L;Ledgerwood J;Graham BS;Bennett H;Pajon R;Knightly C;Leav B;Deng W;Zhou H;Han S;Ivarsson M;Miller J;Zaks T;COVE Study Group
通讯作者：
COVE Study Group
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Brooks, SP;Gelman, A
通讯作者：
Gelman, A