Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November-December 2017.
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November-December 2017.
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作者：
Matsuyama R;Akhmetzhanov AR;Endo A;Lee H;Yamaguchi T;Tsuzuki S;Nishiura H
孟加拉国考克斯巴扎尔的罗辛亚难民营在2017年经历了大规模白喉疫情。难民中既往免疫比例的背景信息无法明确估计，因此我们对基本再生数R0进行了不确定性分析。设计了更新过程模型来估计病例的 R0 和确定率，并将易感个体的损失建模为 1 减去初始免疫分数和流行期间自然感染分数之和。为了解释初始免疫分数的不确定性，我们采用了拉丁超立方采样（LHS）方法。 R0 范围为 4.7 至 14.8，中值估计值为 7.2。 R0 与查明率呈正相关。敏感性分析表明，随着生成时间方差的增大，R0 会变小。 R0估计值与已公布的流行病数据估计值大致一致，表明疫苗接种覆盖率必须达到86%才能通过大规模疫苗接种来预防疫情。 LHS 在背景健康状况难以量化的难民营环境中特别有用。
A Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh experienced a large-scale diphtheria epidemic in 2017. The background information of previously immune fraction among refugees cannot be explicitly estimated, and thus we conducted an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number, R0. A renewal process model was devised to estimate the R0 and ascertainment rate of cases, and loss of susceptible individuals was modeled as one minus the sum of initially immune fraction and the fraction naturally infected during the epidemic. To account for the uncertainty of initially immune fraction, we employed a Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) method. R0 ranged from 4.7 to 14.8 with the median estimate at 7.2. R0 was positively correlated with ascertainment rates. Sensitivity analysis indicated that R0 would become smaller with greater variance of the generation time. Estimated R0 was broadly consistent with published estimate from endemic data, indicating that the vaccination coverage of 86% has to be satisfied to prevent the epidemic by means of mass vaccination. LHS was particularly useful in the setting of a refugee camp in which the background health status is poorly quantified.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2015.08.005
发表时间：
2015-10
期刊：
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Mizumoto K;Saitoh M;Chowell G;Miyamatsu Y;Nishiura H
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0600816103
发表时间：
2006-10-17
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Elderd, Bret D.;Dukic, Vanja M.;Dwyer, Greg
通讯作者：
Dwyer, Greg
DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2017.22.46.17-00710
发表时间：
2017-11
期刊：
Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin
影响因子：
--
作者：
Tsuzuki S;Lee H;Miura F;Chan YH;Jung SM;Akhmetzhanov AR;Nishiura H
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph7010291
发表时间：
2010-01
影响因子：
--
作者：
Nishiura H
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
DOI：
10.1590/s0102-311x2008000400016
发表时间：
2008-04-01
期刊：
Cadernos de Saúde Pública
影响因子：
--
作者：
Coelho, Flávio Codeço;Codeço, Cláudia Torres;Struchiner, Claudio José
通讯作者：
Struchiner, Claudio José