Calculating the potential for within-flight transmission of influenza A (H1N1).
Calculating the potential for within-flight transmission of influenza A (H1N1).
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DOI：
10.1186/1741-7015-7-81
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发表时间：
2009-12-24
期刊：
影响因子：
9.3
通讯作者：
Blower S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wagner BG;Coburn BJ;Blower S
显然，航空旅行将感染者从一个地理位置运送到另一个地理位置，会显着影响甲型流感 (H1N1) 的传播速度。但尚未评估H1N1在飞行中传播的可能性；尽管众所周知，天花、麻疹、肺结核、SARS和季节性流感可以在商业航班上传播。在这里，我们提出了第一个定量风险评估，以评估 H1N1 飞机内传播的可能性。我们使用定量微生物风险评估领域的方法对波音 747 内 H1N1 传染性病毒颗粒的空气传播进行建模。感染 H1N1 流感的风险基本上仅限于与源病例乘坐同一客舱的乘客。毫不奇怪，我们发现飞行时间越长，预计感染的人数就越多。我们计算出，如果源病例乘坐头等舱，即使在长途飞行中，H1N1 也会构成低至中度的飞行内传播风险。具体来说，5小时飞行期间可能发生0-1例感染，11小时飞行期间可能发生1-3例感染，17小时飞行期间可能发生2-5例感染。然而，如果源病例乘坐经济舱，飞行内传播可能会很严重，特别是在长途飞行期间。具体而言，在 5 小时的飞行中可能会发生 2 至 5 例感染，在 11 小时的飞行中可能会发生 5-10 例感染，在 17 小时的飞行中可能会发生 7-17 例感染。如果飞机仅部分装载，在某些情况下，头等舱中发生的感染可能比经济舱中发生的感染更多。在 17 小时的飞行中，如果头等舱满员，但经济舱的满员率低于 30%，头等舱的感染人数会多于经济舱。我们的研究结果提供了关于航空旅行限制对于控制 2009/2010 年冬季流感大流行的潜在效用的见解。研究表明，一名感染者的旅行可能会导致多次同时爆发，而不是导致一次 H1N1 流感爆发。这些结果意味着，在大流行期间，隔离乘坐长途航班经济舱的乘客可能是一项重要的控制策略。值得注意的是，我们的结果表明，隔离乘坐头等舱的乘客不太可能成为有效的控制策略。
Clearly air travel, by transporting infectious individuals from one geographic location to another, significantly affects the rate of spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, the possibility of within-flight transmission of H1N1 has not been evaluated; although it is known that smallpox, measles, tuberculosis, SARS and seasonal influenza can be transmitted during commercial flights. Here we present the first quantitative risk assessment to assess the potential for within-flight transmission of H1N1. We model airborne transmission of infectious viral particles of H1N1 within a Boeing 747 using methodology from the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk of catching H1N1 will essentially be confined to passengers travelling in the same cabin as the source case. Not surprisingly, we find that the longer the flight the greater the number of infections that can be expected. We calculate that H1N1, even during long flights, poses a low to moderate within-flight transmission risk if the source case travels First Class. Specifically, 0-1 infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 1-3 during an 11 hour flight and 2-5 during a 17 hour flight. However, within-flight transmission could be significant, particularly during long flights, if the source case travels in Economy Class. Specifically, two to five infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 5-10 during an 11 hour flight and 7-17 during a 17 hour flight. If the aircraft is only partially loaded, under certain conditions more infections could occur in First Class than in Economy Class. During a 17 hour flight, a greater number of infections would occur in First Class than in Economy if the First Class Cabin is fully occupied, but Economy class is less than 30% full. Our results provide insights into the potential utility of air travel restrictions on controlling influenza pandemics in the winter of 2009/2010. They show travel by one infectious individual, rather than causing a single outbreak of H1N1, could cause several simultaneous outbreaks. These results imply that, during a pandemic, quarantining passengers who travel in Economy on long-haul flights could potentially be an important control strategy. Notably, our results show that quarantining passengers who travel First Class would be unlikely to be an effective control strategy.
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影响因子：
5
作者：
RILEY, EC;MURPHY, G;RILEY, RL
通讯作者：
RILEY, RL
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Fabian, Patricia;McDevitt, James J.;DeHaan, Wesley H.;Fung, Rita O. P.;Cowling, Benjamin J.;Chan, Kwok Hung;Leung, Gabriel M.;Milton, Donald K.
通讯作者：
Milton, Donald K.
DOI：
10.1126/science.1177127
发表时间：
2009-07-24
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Munster VJ;de Wit E;van den Brand JM;Herfst S;Schrauwen EJ;Bestebroer TM;van de Vijver D;Boucher CA;Koopmans M;Rimmelzwaan GF;Kuiken T;Osterhaus AD;Fouchier RA
通讯作者：
Fouchier RA
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Rudnick, SN;Milton, DK
通讯作者：
Milton, DK
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Balcan, Duygu;Hu, Hao;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro