The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China.
The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China.
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中国亚热带气候区温度对心血管疾病死亡率影响的滞后效应和脆弱性
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph110403982
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发表时间：
2014-04-11
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yu W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang J;Wang J;Yu W
本研究量化了长沙地区气温对心血管疾病影响的滞后效应和脆弱性。分布滞后非线性模型框架内的泊松回归模型被用来检查冷和热相关的CVD死亡率的滞后效应。热相关CVD死亡率的滞后效应仅为0-3天。相比之下，我们观察到与寒冷相关的CVD死亡率的10-25天滞后具有统计学显著相关性。0-2天延迟的低温增加了≥65岁和女性的死亡风险。对于所有年龄段，冷相关CVD死亡率的累积效应为6.6%（95%CI：5.2%-8.2%），持续30天，而热相关CVD死亡率的累积效应为4.9%（95%CI：2.0%-7.9%），持续3天。结果表明，在长沙市，高温的滞后效应较短，而低温的滞后效应较长。女性和老年人比男性和年轻人对极热和极冷的温度更敏感。
This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha—a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0–3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10–25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0–2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%–8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%–7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.
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