The potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis suitability across Uganda using INLA.
The potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis suitability across Uganda using INLA.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-022-24281-8
复制
发表时间：
2022-11-19
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Conlan, A. J. K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ndolo, V. A.;Redding, D.;Deka, M. A.;Salzer, J. S.;Vieira, A. R.;Onyuth, H.;Ocaido, M.;Tweyongyere, R.;Azuba, R.;Monje, F.;Ario, A. R.;Kabwama, S.;Kisaakye, E.;Bulage, L.;Kwesiga, B.;Ntono, V.;Harris, J.;Wood, J. L. N.;Conlan, A. J. K.
为了减少与炭疽病爆发相关的兽医、公共卫生、环境和经济负担，确定适合炭疽杆菌（该病的病原体）的区域的空间分布至关重要。贝叶斯方法先前已被应用于估计检测到的B区域周围的不确定性。炭疽适宜性然而，传统的基于仿真的技术通常在计算上要求很高。为了解决这个计算问题，我们使用集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似（INLA），它可以调整空间结构的随机效应，预测B的适用性。炭疽病蔓延乌干达。我们在INLA贝叶斯框架内应用广义加性模型（GAM）来量化B之间的关系。炭疽病的发生与环境我们整合了乌干达全国野生动物、牲畜和人类炭疽病例记录的国家数据库，该数据库跨越多个部门，采用“一个健康”方法，将人类和动物伙伴联系起来。INLA框架成功地确定了乌干达已知的物种适宜性区域，以及乌干达北方、东部和中部的未知热点，这些热点以前没有被其他生态位模型确定。B的主要危险因素炭疽病的适宜范围是靠近水体（0-0.3 km）、增加土壤钙（10 - 25 cmolc/kg）和海拔140-190 m。最终模型对保留的评价数据集的灵敏度为90%（181/202 = 89.6%;四舍五入至90%）。使用该模型生成的预测图可以指导乌干达相关利益攸关方未来的炭疽预防和监测计划。
To reduce the veterinary, public health, environmental, and economic burden associated with anthrax outbreaks, it is vital to identify the spatial distribution of areas suitable for Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of the disease. Bayesian approaches have previously been applied to estimate uncertainty around detected areas of B. anthracis suitability. However, conventional simulation-based techniques are often computationally demanding. To solve this computational problem, we use Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) which can adjust for spatially structured random effects, to predict the suitability of B. anthracis across Uganda. We apply a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) within the INLA Bayesian framework to quantify the relationships between B. anthracis occurrence and the environment. We consolidate a national database of wildlife, livestock, and human anthrax case records across Uganda built across multiple sectors bridging human and animal partners using a One Health approach. The INLA framework successfully identified known areas of species suitability in Uganda, as well as suggested unknown hotspots across Northern, Eastern, and Central Uganda, which have not been previously identified by other niche models. The major risk factors for B. anthracis suitability were proximity to water bodies (0–0.3 km), increasing soil calcium (between 10 and 25 cmolc/kg), and elevation of 140–190 m. The sensitivity of the final model against the withheld evaluation dataset was 90% (181 out of 202 = 89.6%; rounded up to 90%). The prediction maps generated using this model can guide future anthrax prevention and surveillance plans by the relevant stakeholders in Uganda.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Barro AS;Fegan M;Moloney B;Porter K;Muller J;Warner S;Blackburn JK
通讯作者：
Blackburn JK
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Blackburn JK;Odugbo MO;Van Ert M;O'Shea B;Mullins J;Perreten V;Maho A;Hugh-Jones M;Hadfield T
通讯作者：
Hadfield T
影响因子：
28.3
作者：
Carlson, Colin J.;Kracalik, Ian T.;Blackburn, Jason K.
通讯作者：
Blackburn, Jason K.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Kracalik IT;Kenu E;Ayamdooh EN;Allegye-Cudjoe E;Polkuu PN;Frimpong JA;Nyarko KM;Bower WA;Traxler R;Blackburn JK
通讯作者：
Blackburn JK
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00663.x
发表时间：
2008-09-01
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Banerjee S;Gelfand AE;Finley AO;Sang H
通讯作者：
Sang H