Assessing the value of risk predictions by using risk stratification tables.
Assessing the value of risk predictions by using risk stratification tables.
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DOI：
10.7326/0003-4819-149-10-200811180-00009
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发表时间：
2008-11-18
影响因子：
39.2
通讯作者：
Gu W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Janes H;Pepe MS;Gu W
在许多临床环境中，正在开发用于预测疾病或其他不良事件的风险的统计模型。这些模型旨在帮助患者和医生做出明智的决定。Cook及其同事最近提出了一种评估在风险预测模型中添加新标志物的价值的新方法，称为风险分层方法。这涉及在有和没有新标志物的模型的基础上交叉制表风险预测，并已在文献中广泛采用。我们认为，可以从风险分层表中提取关于三个重要模型验证标准的重要信息：1）模型拟合或校准; 2）风险分层能力; 3）基于风险的分类准确性。然而，我们描述了如何包含在表中的信息必须仔细解释，并警告对常见的误用的方法。使用Tice等人最近发表的乳腺癌风险预测模型研究的数据来说明这些概念。
In many clinical settings, statistical models are being developed for predicting risk of disease or other adverse event. These models are intended to help patients and physicians make informed decisions. A new approach to assessing the value of adding a new marker to a risk prediction model, called the risk stratification approach, was recently proposed by Cook and colleagues. This involves cross-tabulating risk predictions on the basis of models with and without the new marker, and has been widely adopted in the literature. We argue that important information with regard to three important model validation criteria can be extracted from risk stratification tables: 1) model fit or calibration; 2) capacity for risk stratification; and 3) accuracy of classifications based on risk. However, we describe how the information contained in the tables must be interpreted carefully, and caution against common misuses of the method. The concepts are illustrated using data from a recently published study of a breast cancer risk prediction model by Tice et al..
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影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Huang, Ying;Pepe, Margaret Sullivan;Feng, Ziding
通讯作者：
Feng, Ziding
DOI：
10.2307/2983440
发表时间：
1995-01-01
影响因子：
2
作者：
CHATFIELD, C
通讯作者：
CHATFIELD, C
影响因子：
37.8
作者：
Cook, Nancy R.
通讯作者：
Cook, Nancy R.
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
BENICHOU, J;GAIL, MH
通讯作者：
GAIL, MH
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
PAUKER, SG;KASSIRER, JP
通讯作者：
KASSIRER, JP