Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the Amazon region.
Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the Amazon region.
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观察到标准化降水指数的变化，其潜在原因和对亚马逊地区未来气候变化的影响。
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2007.0022
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发表时间：
2008-05-27
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Fernandes, Katia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Wenhong;Fu, Rong;Juarez, Robinson I. Negron;Fernandes, Katia
观测结果表明，1970-1999年期间，亚马孙南部地区的标准降水指数每十年下降0.32，表明干旱状况加剧。用最近的气候模式模拟工业化前的恒定气候表明，这种趋势是由于内部气候变率造成的概率很低（p=0%）。当23个模型被强迫与人为因素或人为和外部自然因素，约13%的抽样30年的SPI趋势的模型被发现是在观察到的SPI趋势的范围内，在95%的置信水平。这表明亚马逊河南部气候变化可能存在人为和外部强迫。平均而言，这些模型预测未来低SPI值出现的频率没有变化;然而，那些产生更真实的SPI气候学，变率和趋势的模型在1970-1999年期间显示出更多的趋势，在未来更多的SPI负值。这里提出的分析表明，潜在的人为影响亚马逊干燥，值得未来，更深入的研究。
Observations show that the standard precipitation index (SPI) over the southern Amazon region decreased in the period of 1970–1999 by 0.32 per decade, indicating an increase in dry conditions. Simulations of constant pre-industrial climate with recent climate models indicate a low probability (p=0%) that the trends are due to internal climate variability. When the 23 models are forced with either anthropogenic factors or both anthropogenic and external natural factors, approximately 13% of sampled 30-year SPI trends from the models are found to be within the range of the observed SPI trend at 95% confidence level. This suggests a possibility of anthropogenic and external forcing of climate change in the southern Amazon. On average, the models project no changes in the frequency of occurrence of low SPI values in the future; however, those models which produce more realistic SPI climatology, variability and trend over the period 1970–1999 show more of a tendency towards more negative values of SPI in the future. The analysis presented here suggests a potential anthropogenic influence on Amazon drying, which warrants future, more in-depth, study.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Santer, BD;Wehner, MF;Brüggemann, W
通讯作者：
Brüggemann, W
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Dai, A;Trenberth, KE;Qian, TT
通讯作者：
Qian, TT
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0606291103
发表时间：
2006-09-26
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Hansen, James;Sato, Makiko;Medina-Elizade, Martin
通讯作者：
Medina-Elizade, Martin
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
HIRSCH, RM;SLACK, JR;SMITH, RA
通讯作者：
SMITH, RA
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0702872104
发表时间：
2007-09-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Santer, B. D.;Mears, C.;Wehner, M. F.
通讯作者：
Wehner, M. F.