Using the U.S. National Household Travel Survey to estimate the impact of passenger characteristics on young drivers' relative risk of fatal crash involvement.
Using the U.S. National Household Travel Survey to estimate the impact of passenger characteristics on young drivers' relative risk of fatal crash involvement.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2009.10.017
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发表时间：
2010-03
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Wang, Jing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ouimet, Marie Claude;Simons-Morton, Bruce G.;Zador, Paul L.;Lerner, Neil D.;Freedman, Mark;Duncan, Glen D.;Wang, Jing
在美国，机动车碰撞是青少年发病率和死亡率的主要原因。众所周知，司机和乘客的驾驶暴露和乘客在场都会影响撞车风险，这两个因素都可能因司机和乘客的特征而异。一些研究在计算年轻司机在乘客在场时的致命撞车风险时考虑了驾驶暴露，但没有一项研究根据司机的性别和乘客的年龄和性别来估计撞车风险。造成这一差距的一个可能原因是，关于驾驶暴露的数据收集往往排除了适当的分析。这项研究的目的是以单独驾驶为参照物，考察15-20岁男性和女性司机在每1000万次车辆行程(VT)和车辆行驶里程(VMT)中发生致命车祸的相对风险，作为其乘客年龄和性别的函数。死亡分析报告系统(1999-2003年)提供了致命的机动车碰撞数据，全国家庭旅行调查(NHTS，2001)提供了VT和VMT。NHTS收集家庭成员和非家庭成员(如朋友、同事)的驾驶暴露，但只收集家庭成员的人口统计特征。使用家庭乘客与非家庭司机的旅行信息，将非家庭乘客的失踪年龄和性别归因于热甲板，从而能够根据司机和乘客的特征计算撞车率和相对风险估计。使用这种方法，16-20岁乘客的年轻男性司机的风险最高(每1000万VT的相对风险[RR]=7.99；95%可信区间[CI]，7.34-8.69；每1000万VMT的RR=9.94；95%CI，9.13-10.81)。对于21-34岁的乘客来说，相对风险也很高，特别是当司机和乘客都是男性时。这些影响值得进一步调查，并强调了根据乘客特征考虑驾驶暴露在了解碰撞风险方面的重要性。此外，由于所有的推算技术都不完善，要更准确地估计美国每行驶距离的致命撞车风险，将需要全国调查收集非家庭乘客特征的数据。
Motor vehicle crashes are the main cause of morbidity and mortality in teenagers and young adults in the United States. Driving exposure and passenger presence, which can both vary by driver and passenger characteristics, are known to influence crash risk. Some studies have accounted for driving exposure in calculating young driver fatal crash risk in the presence of passengers, but none have estimated crash risk by driver sex and passenger age and sex. One possible reason for this gap is that data collection on driving exposure often precludes appropriate analyses. The purpose of this study was to examine, per 10 million vehicle trips (VT) and vehicle-miles traveled (VMT), the relative risk of fatal crash involvement in 15–20-year-old male and female drivers as a function of their passenger’s age and sex, using solo driving as the referent. The Fatality Analysis Reporting System (1999–2003) provided fatal motor vehicle crash data and the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS, 2001) provided VT and VMT. The NHTS collects driving exposure for both household and non-household members (e.g., friends, colleagues), but demographic characteristics only on household members. Missing age and sex of non-household passengers were imputed with hot deck using information from household passengers’ trips with non-household drivers, thereby enabling the calculation of crash rate and relative risk estimates based upon driver and passenger characteristics. Using this approach, the highest risk was found for young male drivers with 16–20-year-old passengers (relative risk [RR] per 10 million VT = 7.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.34–8.69; RR per 10 million VMT = 9.94; 95% CI, 9.13–10.81). Relative risk was also high for 21–34-year-old passengers, again particularly when both drivers and passengers were male. These effects warrant further investigation and underscore the importance of considering driving exposure by passenger characteristics in understanding crash risk. Additionally, as all imputation techniques are imperfect, a more accurate estimation of U.S fatal crash risk per distance driven would require national surveys to collect data on non-household passenger characteristics.
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5.9
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