Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence.
Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Zolina O
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ciavarella A;Cotterill D;Stott P;Kew S;Philip S;van Oldenborgh GJ;Skålevåg A;Lorenz P;Robin Y;Otto F;Hauser M;Seneviratne SI;Lehner F;Zolina O
于二零二零年上半年，西伯利亚于一月至六月经历有记录以来最温暖的时期，而于六月二十日，Verkhoyansk气象站录得38 °C，为北极圈以北录得的最高日最高气温。我们提出了一个多模型，多方法分析人为气候变化如何影响这些事件发生的概率，使用观测数据集和大量的气候模型，包括最先进的高分辨率模拟设计的归因和许多来自最新一代的耦合海洋-大气模型，CMIP 6。意识到热浪的影响可以跨越空间和时间尺度的巨大差异，我们专注于2020年西伯利亚极端高温的两个措施：1月至6月西伯利亚大区域的平均温度和Verkhoyansk镇附近的最高日温度。我们发现，人类引起的气候变化大大增加了这两个极端事件的发生概率和幅度（Verkhoyansk的概率置信度较低），如果没有人类的影响，西伯利亚在2020年上半年普遍经历的温度几乎是不可能的。在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w获得。
Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced the warmest period from January to June since records began and on the 20th of June the weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis on how anthropogenic climate change affected the probability of these events occurring using both observational datasets and a large collection of climate models, including state-of-the-art higher-resolution simulations designed for attribution and many from the latest generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, CMIP6. Conscious that the impacts of heatwaves can span large differences in spatial and temporal scales, we focus on two measures of the extreme Siberian heat of 2020: January to June mean temperatures over a large Siberian region and maximum daily temperatures in the vicinity of the town of Verkhoyansk. We show that human-induced climate change has dramatically increased the probability of occurrence and magnitude of extremes in both of these (with lower confidence for the probability for Verkhoyansk) and that without human influence the temperatures widely experienced in Siberia in the first half of 2020 would have been practically impossible. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2007117117
发表时间：
2020-08-18
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Schwalm, Christopher R.;Glendon, Spencer;Duffy, Philip B.
通讯作者：
Duffy, Philip B.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
O'Neill, Brian C.;Tebaldi, Claudia;Sanderson, Benjamin M.
通讯作者：
Sanderson, Benjamin M.
影响因子：
8
作者：
Paciorek, Christopher J.;Stone, Daithi A.;Wehner, Michael F.
通讯作者：
Wehner, Michael F.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Hazeleger, W.;Wang, X.;van der Wiel, K.
通讯作者：
van der Wiel, K.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Eyring, Veronika;Bony, Sandrine;Taylor, Karl E.
通讯作者：
Taylor, Karl E.