Financial impact of sheeppox and goatpox and estimated profitability of vaccination for subsistence farmers in selected northern states of Nigeria.
Financial impact of sheeppox and goatpox and estimated profitability of vaccination for subsistence farmers in selected northern states of Nigeria.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2021.105503
复制
发表时间：
2022-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Alarcon P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rawlins ME;Limon G;Adedeji AJ;Ijoma SI;Atai RB;Adole JA;Dogonyaro BB;Joel AY;Beard PM;Alarcon P
羊痘和山羊痘是重要的跨界疾病，在尼日利亚流行，引起严重的临床表现，影响生产，并造成经济损失。疫苗接种是流行国家针对SGP的一项有效控制措施，但尼日利亚目前尚未实施。本研究旨在估计小额赠款方案的财务影响，并评估在北方尼日利亚不同情景下，小额赠款方案疫苗接种在畜群和区域层面的经济可行性。综合随机生产和经济畜群模型，为季节性放牧和定居畜群。模型针对两种疾病情景（严重和轻微影响）以及接种和不接种疫苗运行，数据参数来自文献估计值，实地调查和作者的经验。使用毛利率（GM）和部分预算分析评估了疾病及其疫苗接种对畜群水平的净财务影响。然后，这些被用来评估疾病的区域财政影响和盈利能力的3年疫苗接种方案使用成本效益分析。区域分析是在0%、50%和100%政府补贴情景下进行的;作为一个独立的计划或与其他现有的疫苗接种计划相结合;以及基于风险和非基于风险的干预。在严重和轻微受影响的情况下，久坐的每只生殖雌性动物的SGP损失中位数分别为27英镑（90% CI：31- 22英镑）和5英镑（90% CI：7- 3英镑），季节性放牧的每只生殖雌性动物的SGP损失中位数分别为30英镑（90% CI：41-21英镑）和7英镑（90% CI：10- 3英镑）。以降价出售动物，出售更少的年轻动物，并减少受影响的动物留在牛群中的价值是农民的SGP成本的最大贡献者。受SGP影响的畜群实现了高达121%的转基因减少，在定居和138%的流动放牧。区域小额赠款方案估计费用中位数超过2400万英镑。每只育龄雌性动物接种疫苗的群体平均收益为23.76英镑（90% CI：19.28英镑-28.61英镑）和4.01英镑（90%CI：£2.36-£6.31），久坐，和£26.85（90% CI：£ 17. 99-£ 37. 02）和£ 7. 45（90% CI：£ 3. 47-£ 15. 14）在季节性放牧牛群中，分别在严重和轻微受影响的情况下。中位获益：在50%的补贴下，严重受影响畜群的成本比（BCR）为：定居畜群6.62（90% CI：5.30-8.90），季节性放牧畜群5.14（90% CI：3.31-13.81）。区域小额赠款方案疫苗接种独立方案BCR：7-27、区域小额赠款方案疫苗接种与现有疫苗接种方案BCR：7-228和高风险地区疫苗接种BCR：19-439被认为对所有探讨的补贴水平都是经济上可行的。低风险地区的疫苗接种仅在100%的政府补贴下实现效益。这项研究进一步增加了对小额赠款方案在北方尼日利亚的影响的了解，并证明疫苗接种是一种经济上可行的控制战略，在国家一级和区域一级，这取决于所考虑的战略和政府补贴水平。
Sheeppox and goatpox (SGP) are important transboundary diseases, endemic in Nigeria, causing severe clinical manifestations, impacting production, and resulting in economic losses. Vaccination is an effective control measure against SGP in endemic countries but is not currently implemented in Nigeria. This study aimed to estimate SGP financial impact and assess economic viability of SGP vaccination at the herd and regional level under different scenarios in Northern Nigeria. Integrated stochastic production and economic herd models were developed for transhumance and sedentary herds. Models were run for two disease scenarios (severely and slightly affected) and with and without vaccination, with data parameterisation from literature estimates, field survey and authors’ experience. Herd-level net financial impact of the disease and its vaccination was assessed using gross margin (GM) and partial budget analyses. These were then used to assess regional financial impact of disease and profitability of a 3-year vaccination programme using a cost-benefit analysis. The regional-analysis was performed under 0 %, 50 % and 100 % government subsidy scenarios; as a standalone programme or in combination with other existing vaccination programmes; and for risk-based and non-risk-based intervention. Median SGP losses per reproductive female were £27 (90 % CI: £31-£22), and £5 (90 % CI: £7-£3), in sedentary, and £30 (90 % CI: £41-21), and £7 (90 % CI: £10-£3), in transhumance herds, for severely and slightly affected scenarios respectively. Selling animals at a reduced price, selling fewer young animals, and reduced value of affected animals remaining in the herd were the greatest contributors to farmer’s SGP costs. SGP-affected herds realised a GM reduction of up to 121 % in sedentary and 138 % in transhumance. Median estimated regional SGP cost exceeded £24 million. Herd-level median benefits of vaccination per reproductive female were £23.76 (90 % CI: £19.28-£28.61), and £4.01 (90 % CI: £2.36-£6.31), in sedentary, and £26.85 (90 % CI: £17.99-£37.02) and £7.45 (90 % CI: £3.47-£15.14) in transhumance herds, in severely and slightly affected scenarios, respectively. Median benefit: cost ratio (BCR) for severely affected herds at 50% subsidies was 6.62 (90% CI: 5.30-8.90) for sedentary, and 5.14 (90% CI: 3.31-13.81) for transhumance herds. The regional SGP vaccination standalone programme BCR: 7–27, regional SGP vaccination with existing vaccination programme BCR: 7–228 and vaccinating high-risk areas BCR: 19–439 were found to be economically viable for all subsidy levels explored. Vaccinating low-risk areas only realised benefits with 100 % of government subsidies. This study further increases understanding of SGP’s impact within Northern Nigeria and demonstrates vaccination is an economically viable control strategy at the herd-level and also regionally, depending on the strategy and government subsidy levels considered.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-030-25385-1_14
发表时间：
2019-01-01
期刊：
TRANSBOUNDARY ANIMAL DISEASES IN SAHELIAN AFRICA AND CONNECTED REGIONS
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gelaye, Esayas;Lamien, Charles Euloge
通讯作者：
Lamien, Charles Euloge
影响因子：
1.8
作者：
Bolajoko, M. B.;Adedeji, A. J.;Luka, P. D.
通讯作者：
Luka, P. D.
DOI：
10.20506/rst.26.2.1745
发表时间：
2007-08-01
影响因子：
0.6
作者：
McLeod, A.;Rushton, J.
通讯作者：
Rushton, J.
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Knight-Jones TJ;Rushton J
通讯作者：
Rushton J
综合生产和经济模型的应用来估计施马伦贝格病毒对英国和法国各种绵羊生产类型的影响。
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Alarcon P;Häsler B;Raboisson D;Waret-Szkuta A;Corbière F;Rushton J
通讯作者：
Rushton J