Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico.
Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0000382
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Glass, Gregory E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Johansson, Michael A.;Dominici, Francesca;Glass, Gregory E.
这四种登革热病毒是人类登革热和登革出血热的病原体，主要由蚊子埃及伊蚊传播。Ae的丰度和传播潜力。埃及伊蚊受温度和降水的影响。虽然有强有力的生物学证据证明这些影响，但气候和人类群体登革热发病率之间的关系的实证研究可能会受到季节性协变和空间异质性的干扰。利用20年的数据和统计方法控制季节性，我们发现波多黎各每月温度和降水量的变化与登革热传播的每月变化之间存在正向和统计上显著的关联。我们还发现，这种关联的强度在空间上是不同的，这种变化与当地气候的差异有关，并且这种关系与这些因素对媒介生存和病毒复制的影响的实验室研究是一致的。这些结果表明温度和降水在登革热病毒传播中的重要性，并提出了它们的空间异质性的原因。因此，虽然登革热传播可能有一个一般的系统，但其在地方规模上的表现可能与全球预期不同。登革热病毒是全世界热带和亚热带地区的主要健康问题。由于它们是由对降雨和温度变化敏感的蚊子传播的，因此传播强度可能会受到天气和气候的调节。实验室研究表明，这在生物学上是可信的，但在现实生活中传播的研究一直没有定论。在这里，我们证明，气温和降雨量的增加与随后几个月在波多黎各各地的登革热传播增加有关。我们还表明，波多黎各当地气候的差异可以解释在天气和登革热传播之间的关系中观察到的地方差异。这一发现很重要，因为它表明传播的决定因素发生在地方层面上，因此尽管登革热病毒具有基本普遍的传播周期，但温度或降雨的变化可能会对当地产生不同的影响。
The four dengue viruses, the agents of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever in humans, are transmitted predominantly by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The abundance and the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti are influenced by temperature and precipitation. While there is strong biological evidence for these effects, empirical studies of the relationship between climate and dengue incidence in human populations are potentially confounded by seasonal covariation and spatial heterogeneity. Using 20 years of data and a statistical approach to control for seasonality, we show a positive and statistically significant association between monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and monthly changes in dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. We also found that the strength of this association varies spatially, that this variation is associated with differences in local climate, and that this relationship is consistent with laboratory studies of the impacts of these factors on vector survival and viral replication. These results suggest the importance of temperature and precipitation in the transmission of dengue viruses and suggest a reason for their spatial heterogeneity. Thus, while dengue transmission may have a general system, its manifestation on a local scale may differ from global expectations. Dengue viruses are a major health problem throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Because they are transmitted by mosquitoes that are sensitive to changes in rainfall and temperature, transmission intensity may be regulated by weather and climate. Laboratory studies have shown this to be biologically plausible, but studies of transmission in real-life situations have been inconclusive. Here we demonstrate that increased temperature and rainfall are associated with increased dengue transmission in subsequent months across Puerto Rico. We also show that differences in local climate within Puerto Rico can explain local differences observed in the relationship between weather and dengue transmission. This finding is important because it suggests that the determinants of transmission occur on a local level such that although dengue viruses have a basically universal transmission cycle, changes in temperature or rainfall may have diverse local effects.
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影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Cazelles B;Chavez M;McMichael AJ;Hales S
通讯作者：
Hales S
DOI：
10.1080/09603120400012868
发表时间：
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