Responses of crop yield growth to global temperature and socioeconomic changes.
Responses of crop yield growth to global temperature and socioeconomic changes.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-017-08214-4
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发表时间：
2017-08-10
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Nishimori M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iizumi T;Furuya J;Shen Z;Kim W;Okada M;Fujimori S;Hasegawa T;Nishimori M
虽然生物物理产量对局部变暖的响应已经被研究过，但我们对作物产量增长（气候和技术的一个函数）如何响应全球温度和社会经济变化知之甚少。本文采用全球网格化作物模型模拟了工业化前变暖条件下主要作物的产量增长情况。结果表明，即使考虑到农艺调整，全球玉米和大豆的平均产量也将随着气候变暖而停滞不前。这一趋势在各种社会经济假设中都是一致的。低纬度地区的低收入国家将受益于密集的减缓措施和相关的有限变暖趋势（1.8°C），从而防止玉米、大豆和小麦产量停滞不前。这些国家的水稻产量可以在更剧烈的变暖趋势下提高。位于中纬度和高纬度的高收入国家的玉米和大豆作物的产量增长将停滞不前，而水稻和小麦的产量增长将不会停滞不前。我们的研究结果支持了雄心勃勃的气候减缓目标对维持全球产量增长的重要性。
Although biophysical yield responses to local warming have been studied, we know little about how crop yield growth—a function of climate and technology—responds to global temperature and socioeconomic changes. Here, we present the yield growth of major crops under warming conditions from preindustrial levels as simulated by a global gridded crop model. The results revealed that global mean yields of maize and soybean will stagnate with warming even when agronomic adjustments are considered. This trend is consistent across socioeconomic assumptions. Low-income countries located at low latitudes will benefit from intensive mitigation and from associated limited warming trends (1.8 °C), thus preventing maize, soybean and wheat yield stagnation. Rice yields in these countries can improve under more aggressive warming trends. The yield growth of maize and soybean crops in high-income countries located at mid and high latitudes will stagnate, whereas that of rice and wheat will not. Our findings underpin the importance of ambitious climate mitigation targets for sustaining yield growth worldwide.
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