Modeling vaccination coverage during the 2022 central Ohio measles outbreak: a cross-sectional study.
Modeling vaccination coverage during the 2022 central Ohio measles outbreak: a cross-sectional study.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.lana.2023.100533
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发表时间：
2023-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Majumder, Maimuna S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Martoma, Rosemary A.;Washam, Matthew;Martoma, Joshua C.;Cori, Anne;Majumder, Maimuna S.
关键词：
在美国8次大规模（50例）消除后疫情中，第一次和最后一次发生在俄亥俄州。俄亥俄州的疫苗接种登记不完整。社区层面的免疫差距威胁着美国20多年来消除麻疹的努力。我们开发了一个统计模型VaxEstim，以快速估计2022年俄亥俄州中部疫情期间暴露人群的早期疫苗接种覆盖率和免疫缺口。我们使用重建的每日发病率（来自公开数据）和关于连续间隔分布的假设，或连续麻疹病例出现症状之间的时间，来估计有效繁殖数（即，部分免疫人群中受感染个体引起的继发感染的平均数量）。我们通过比较有效繁殖数与基本繁殖数（即完全易感人群中受感染个体引起的继发感染的平均数量）来估计早期麻疹疫苗接种覆盖率，同时考虑疫苗有效性。最后，我们将早期免疫缺口估计为估计的临界疫苗接种阈值与疫苗接种覆盖率之间的差异。VaxEstim估计早期疫苗接种覆盖率为53%(95%可信区间，21%-77%)，关键疫苗接种阈值为93%，免疫缺口为42%（95%可信区间，18%-74%）。该研究估计，在2022年俄亥俄州中部麻疹暴发的早期阶段，暴露人群存在显著的免疫差距，这表明需要采取强有力的公共卫生应对措施，以确定易感社区，并制定针对社区的战略，以缩小免疫差距。这项工作在一定程度上得到了；(MRC);的;国家卫生研究院；族是雅篾；EDCTP2计划，由还有。
Of the eight large (>50 cases) US postelimination outbreaks, the first and last occurred in Ohio. Ohio's vaccination registry is incomplete. Community-level immunity gaps threaten more than two decades of measles elimination in the US. We developed a statistical model, VaxEstim, to rapidly estimate the early-phase vaccination coverage and immunity gap in the exposed population during the 2022 Central Ohio outbreak. We used reconstructed daily incidence (from publicly available data) and assumptions about the distribution of the serial interval, or the time between symptom onset in successive measles cases, to estimate the effective reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual in a partially immune population). We estimated early-phase measles vaccination coverage by comparing the effective reproduction number to the basic reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected individual in a fully susceptible population) while accounting for vaccine effectiveness. Finally, we estimated the early-phase immunity gap as the difference between the estimated critical vaccination threshold and vaccination coverage. VaxEstim estimated the early-phase vaccination coverage as 53% (95% credible interval, 21%–77%), the critical vaccination threshold as 93%, and the immunity gap as 42% (95% credible interval, 18%–74%). This study estimates a significant immunity gap in the exposed population during the early phase of the 2022 Central Ohio measles outbreak, suggesting a robust public health response is needed to identify the susceptible community and develop community-specific strategies to close the immunity gap. This work was supported in part by the , ; the (MRC); the ; the (NIHR) ; , and the , Community Jameel; the EDCTP2 programme, supported by the ; and the .
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jiaa793
发表时间：
2021-09-30
期刊：
The Journal of infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gastañaduy PA;Goodson JL;Panagiotakopoulos L;Rota PA;Orenstein WA;Patel M
通讯作者：
Patel M
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Delamater, Paul L.;Street, Erica J.;Jacobsen, Kathryn H.
通讯作者：
Jacobsen, Kathryn H.
影响因子：
33.9
作者：
McDonald, Robert;Ruppert, Patricia Schnabel;Zucker, Howard A.
通讯作者：
Zucker, Howard A.
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Gastanaduy, Paul A.;Budd, Jeremy;DiOrio, Mary
通讯作者：
DiOrio, Mary
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Mathis, Adria D.;Clemmons, Nakia S.;Gastanaduy, Paul A.
通讯作者：
Gastanaduy, Paul A.