Interactions between seasonal temperature variation and temporal synchrony drive increased arbovirus co-infection incidence.
Interactions between seasonal temperature variation and temporal synchrony drive increased arbovirus co-infection incidence.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.220829
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发表时间：
2022-10
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Cavany, Sean M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Poterek, Marya L.;Vogels, Chantal B. F.;Grubaugh, Nathan D.;Ebel, Gregory D.;Perkins, T. Alex;Cavany, Sean M.
虽然临床上有节肢动物传播（虫媒）病毒合并感染的病例，但虫媒病毒合并感染的总体发生率及其驱动因素尚不清楚。既然登革热、寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅病毒都在美洲的热带和亚热带地区传播，了解使合并感染更有可能发生的环境和生物条件就很重要。为了理解这一点，我们建立了两种虫媒病毒共传播的数学模型，其传播参数近似于登革热、寨卡病毒和/或基孔肯雅病毒，并且可能在人类和蚊子中同时感染。我们检查了虫媒病毒共循环的季节时间对共感染程度的影响。通过对该模型进行敏感性分析，我们研究了生物因素如何与季节性相互作用，以确定虫媒病毒合并感染的传播和流行。研究发现，共感染病毒的时间同步性和平均温度是影响共感染发生率的主要因素。我们的模型强调了蚊子共同传播的协同效应，这导致共同感染的数量比没有共同传播的情况下的预期数量增加了一倍以上。我们的结果表明，除非在热带气候中病毒在时间和空间上同时发生，否则不太可能发生相当数量的共同感染。
Though instances of arthropod-borne (arbo)virus co-infection have been documented clinically, the overall incidence of arbovirus co-infection and its drivers are not well understood. Now that dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses are all in circulation across tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas, it is important to understand the environmental and biological conditions that make co-infections more likely to occur. To understand this, we developed a mathematical model of co-circulation of two arboviruses, with transmission parameters approximating dengue, Zika and/or chikungunya viruses, and co-infection possible in both humans and mosquitoes. We examined the influence of seasonal timing of arbovirus co-circulation on the extent of co-infection. By undertaking a sensitivity analysis of this model, we examined how biological factors interact with seasonality to determine arbovirus co-infection transmission and prevalence. We found that temporal synchrony of the co-infecting viruses and average temperature were the most influential drivers of co-infection incidence. Our model highlights the synergistic effect of co-transmission from mosquitoes, which leads to more than double the number of co-infections than would be expected in a scenario without co-transmission. Our results suggest that appreciable numbers of co-infections are unlikely to occur except in tropical climates when the viruses co-occur in time and space.
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影响因子：
28.3
作者：
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