The impact of the energy crisis on the UK's net-zero transition.
The impact of the energy crisis on the UK's net-zero transition.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.isci.2023.106491
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发表时间：
2023-04-21
期刊：
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Mac Dowell, Niall
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mersch, Matthias;Markides, Christos N.;Mac Dowell, Niall
最近天然气价格的大幅上涨使净零过渡、能源安全和可负担性之间的内在紧张关系成为焦点。我们研究了不同燃料价格对能源系统转型的影响，明确考虑了日益耦合的电力和供暖部门，并纳入了新兴的氢气部门。其目的是确定低后悔的决策和最佳的能源系统过渡不同的燃料价格。我们观察到，供热行业的发展对天然气价格高度敏感，而电力行业的组成并不受天然气价格的影响。我们还观察到，生物能源在能源系统转型中发挥着重要作用，天然气价格和生物质价格之间的平衡决定了最佳技术组合。这两种资源价格的未来演变具有高度不确定性，未来的能源系统必须能够抵御这些不确定性。燃料价格对供热很重要，对电力影响较小确定低遗憾选项是关键生物质在天然气价格较高时取代固定燃气发电的价值热泵作为主要减排技术在天然气价格较高时具有吸引力能源政策;能源管理;能源建模;能源系统;生物燃料
Recent drastic increases in natural gas prices have brought into sharp focus the inherent tensions between net-zero transitions, energy security, and affordability. We investigate the impact of different fuel prices on the energy system transition, explicitly accounting for the increasingly coupled power and heating sectors, and also incorporate the emerging hydrogen sector. The aim is to identify low-regret decisions and optimal energy system transitions for different fuel prices. We observe that the evolution of the heating sector is highly sensitive to gas price, whereas the composition of the power sector is not qualitatively impacted by gas prices. We also observe that bioenergy plays an important role in the energy system transition, and the balance between gas prices and biomass prices determines the optimal technology portfolios. The future evolution of the prices of these two resources is highly uncertain, and future energy systems must be resilient to these uncertainties. Fuel prices matter for heat, less so for power Identifying low-regret options is key Biomass valuable to replace firm gas-fired generation at higher gas prices Heat pumps as main abatement technology attractive at higher gas prices Energy policy; Energy management; Energy modeling; Energy systems; Biofuel
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