Elucidating the spatio‐temporal dynamics of an emerging wildlife pathogen using approximate Bayesian computation
Elucidating the spatio‐temporal dynamics of an emerging wildlife pathogen using approximate Bayesian computation
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使用近似贝叶斯计算阐明新兴野生动物病原体的时空动态
DOI：
10.1111/mec.13401
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Blanchet S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fourtune L;Paz-Vinas I;Loot G;Veyssière C;Roche B;Blanchet S.
新出现的病原体对人类健康和生物多样性构成严重威胁。确定新兴病原体的状态（本地或非本地），并追溯其时空动态，对于了解促进其出现的生态进化因素，控制其传播并减轻其影响至关重要。然而，追溯新兴野生动物病原体的时空动态是具有挑战性的，因为（i）它们通常被忽视，直到它们变得足够丰富并引起社会经济问题，（ii）它们的地理范围通常鲜为人知。在这里，我们结合了经典的人口遗传学工具和近似贝叶斯计算（即ABC）追溯动力学的Tracheliastes polycolpus，一个记录不足的致病性体外寄生虫出现在西欧，威胁几种淡水鱼类。我们的研究结果有力地表明，法国的多穴毛癣菌种群来自于一个独特的遗传库，这个遗传库最有可能是在20世纪20年代在法国中部引入的。从最初的种群开始，在接下来的二十年内，周边流域发生了三波殖民化。我们进一步证明，人口保持在低密度，因此无法检测到，在10年前的一个重大的人口扩张发生，并在法国正式检测之前。这些发现证实并扩展了这种新兴病原体的少数历史记录。更一般地说，我们的研究表明，ABC如何可以用来确定的状态，重建殖民历史和推断新兴的野生动物病原体的关键进化参数，低数据可用性，并从假定的本地区域的样本是不可访问的。
Emerging pathogens constitute a severe threat for human health and biodiversity. Determining the status (native or non‐native) of emerging pathogens, and tracing back their spatio‐temporal dynamics, is crucial to understand the eco‐evolutionary factors promoting their emergence, to control their spread and mitigate their impacts. However, tracing back the spatio‐temporal dynamics of emerging wildlife pathogens is challenging because (i) they are often neglected until they become sufficiently abundant and pose socio‐economical concerns and (ii) their geographical range is often little known. Here, we combined classical population genetics tools and approximate Bayesian computation (i.e. ABC) to retrace the dynamics ofTracheliastes polycolpus,a poorly documented pathogenic ectoparasite emerging in Western Europe that threatens several freshwater fish species. Our results strongly suggest that populations ofT. polycolpusin France emerged from individuals originating from a unique genetic pool that were most likely introduced in the 1920s in central France. From this initial population, three waves of colonization occurred into peripheral watersheds within the next two decades. We further demonstrated that populations remained at low densities, and hence undetectable, during 10 years before a major demographic expansion occurred, and before its official detection in France. These findings corroborate and expand the few historical records available for this emerging pathogen. More generally, our study demonstrates how ABC can be used to determine the status, reconstruct the colonization history and infer key evolutionary parameters of emerging wildlife pathogens with low data availability, and for which samples from the putative native area are inaccessible.
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