The Springtime Influence of Natural Tropical Pacific Variability on the Surface Climate of the Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica: Implications for Ice Shelf Thinning.
The Springtime Influence of Natural Tropical Pacific Variability on the Surface Climate of the Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica: Implications for Ice Shelf Thinning.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-30496-5
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发表时间：
2018-08-10
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Pope JO
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clem KR;Orr A;Pope JO
从20世纪50年代开始的观测记录显示，南极洲西部是地球上变暖最快的地区之一。再加上由于当地风强迫（近几十年来的主要机制），温暖的环极深水（CDW）对大陆架的入侵增加，这导致了浮冰架表面和底部融化的加剧，以及南极西部出口冰川的加速和变薄，增加了全球海平面上升的速度。在这项研究中，它表明，在南方的春季，显着的表面变暖整个西南极洲已向西转移到罗斯冰架在最近几十年来，在罗斯海的气旋环流增强。这些环流变化是由热带西太平洋海表温度升高导致的Rossby波列引起的，这与1992年后太平洋年代际涛动（IPO）的春季转向负相有关。虽然当地的风趋势增强了罗斯冰架的暖空气平流和表面变暖，但风趋势的强东风分量降低了CDW侵入该地区大陆架的可能性。这表明，在春季有罗斯冰架的表面和基底融化的竞争机制，这两者都与自然的热带太平洋十年变化密切相关。此外，在未来十年中，预计IPO将恢复到其积极阶段，尽管可能会减少罗斯冰架的表面变暖，但由于CDW的入侵增加和基底融化的增强，可能会增加罗斯海冰架解体的风险。
Observational records starting in the 1950s show West Antarctica is amongst the most rapidly warming regions on the planet. Together with increased intrusions of warm circumpolar deep water (CDW) onto the continental shelf due to local wind forcing (the primary mechanism in recent decades), this has resulted in enhanced surface and basal melting of floating ice shelves and an associated acceleration and thinning of West Antarctic outlet glaciers, increasing the rate of global sea level rise. In this study, it is shown that during the austral spring season, significant surface warming across West Antarctica has shifted westward to the Ross Ice Shelf in recent decades in response to enhanced cyclonic circulation over the Ross Sea. These circulation changes are caused by a Rossby wave train forced by increasing sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific, which is tied to the springtime shift of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) to its negative phase after 1992. While the local wind trends enhance warm air advection and surface warming across the Ross Ice Shelf, the strong easterly component of the wind trends reduces the likelihood for intrusions of CDW onto the continental shelf in this region. This suggests that during spring there are competing mechanisms of surface and basal melting of the Ross Ice Shelf, both of which are closely tied to natural tropical Pacific decadal variability. Moreover, that the projected transition of the IPO back to its positive phase in the coming decade, though likely to reduce surface warming on the Ross Ice Shelf, could increase the risk of disintegration of Ross Sea ice shelves due to increased intrusions of CDW and enhanced basal melting.
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