Adaptation of winter wheat varieties and irrigation patterns under future climate change conditions in Northern China
Adaptation of winter wheat varieties and irrigation patterns under future climate change conditions in Northern China
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中国北方未来气候变化条件下冬小麦品种和灌溉模式的适应
DOI：
10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106409
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Cai Huanjie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Xiaowen;Li Liang;Ding Yibo;Xu Jiatun;Wang Yunfei;Zhu Yan;Wang Xiaoyun;Cai Huanjie
气候变化对粮食安全和水资源利用构成巨大挑战。本研究旨在探讨北方冬小麦对气候变化的响应，并提出相应的维持产量和作物水分生产力的策略。气候模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）第五阶段的气候模式预测被用来驱动基于过程的土壤-水-大气-植物（SWAP）农业水文模型。SWAP参数优化的参数估计程序（PEST），扩大了作物模型的区域尺度。利用SWAP模拟了作物生长、蒸散量（ET）和产量对基线（2006-2012年）气候和未来气候条件下两种典型浓度路径（RCP）情景（RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5）的响应。结果表明，PEST优化效率高，SWAP优化效果好（平均相对误差< 20.87%，归一化均方根误差< 25.83%）。与基线相比，最高和最低温度分别增加了6.47°C和8.59°C，差异有统计学意义（P < 0.05）。增暖显著（P < 0.05）缩短了冬小麦生育期25.3- 34.7d，尤其是抽穗期。通径分析表明，降水量的显著性变化（P < 0.05）是ET升高的决定因素。温度升高的不利影响抵消了辐射对产量的促进作用，最终导致减产35.57- 41.14%。优化方案表明，在未来气候条件下，晚熟品种和灌溉调整可提高产量（最高达38.21%）和WPc（最高达44.30%）。在生育早期（拔节期和抽穗期）实施灌溉有利于提高产量和WPc。我们建议将晚熟品种与灌溉调整相结合，以在未来气候条件下保持产量和WPc。
Climate change poses great challenges for food security and water use. This study aimed to investigate the response of winter wheat in Northern China to climate change and propose corresponding strategies to maintain yield and crop water productivity (WPc). Climate model projections from the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to drive the process–based soil–water–atmosphere–plant (SWAP) agro-hydrological model. The SWAP parameters were optimized by the Parameter Estimation program (PEST), which extended the crop model to the regional scale. SWAP was used to simulate responses of crop growth, evapotranspiration (ET), and yield to baseline (2006–2012) climate and two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for future climate conditions. The results indicated that PEST had high optimization efficiency and calibrated SWAP performed well (average relative error < 20.87% and normalized root mean square error < 25.83%). Compared with baseline, the maximum and minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.05) by 6.47°C and 8.59°C, respectively. The cumulative precipitation during the growing season increased by 303.22–316.12 mm. Warming significantly (P < 0.05) reduced the growth period of winter wheat by 25.3–34.7 days, especially in the emergence–heading stage. Path analysis revealed that significant (P < 0.05) change of precipitation was a determining factor in increasing ET. The adverse effect of temperature increase offset the promotion of yield due to radiation, and ultimately led to a yield reduction of 35.57–41.14%. The optimization scenario indicated that late-maturing varieties and irrigation adjustment could improve yield (up to 38.21%) and WPc (up to 44.30%) under future climate conditions. Implementing irrigation at an early growing stage (joining and heading) was beneficial to increase yield and WPc. We recommend combining late-maturing varieties with irrigation adjustments to maintain yield and WPc under future climate conditions.
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