Sequences of presidential-term-Limit reforms: Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa
Sequences of presidential-term-Limit reforms: Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa
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总统任期限制改革的顺序：拉丁美洲和撒哈拉以南非洲
DOI：
10.1080/13510347.2021.1980540
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Mariana Llanos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Charlotte ;Mariana Llanos
在这篇文章中，我们纵观拉丁美洲和撒哈拉以南非洲自第三次民主化浪潮以来的总统任期限制改革。这两个地区的许多国家(重新)在这个时候引入了任期限制，作为防止个人统治和滥用权力的民主保障。从那时起，任期限制就遭到了过多的改革尝试的挑战。这种改革通常被视为对民主的威胁，因为稳定的机构被认为是巩固民主的关键，而取消任期限制则与专制进程有关。从有关民主巩固、制度化和总统任期限制改革的文献中，我们提炼出对跨越时间的任期限制改革路径的理论预期，并考察它们与政治制度演变的关系。运用序列分析的研究方法，对跨区域改革路径进行了实证研究。我们发现，任期限制规则的稳定性比预期更普遍，但这种稳定性有时掩盖了威权制度下的制度无效。频繁改革导致的统治不稳定可能是通向独裁的零碎道路的一部分，但它也可能反映出威权倾向和民主抵抗之间的无止境拉锯战。
In this article we take a longitudinal view on presidential-term-limit reforms in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa since the third wave of democratization. Many countries in the two regions (re-)introduced term limits at this time as a democratic safeguard against personal rule and power abuses. Since then, term limits have been contested by a plethora of reform attempts. Such reforms are commonly seen as a risk to democracy since stable institutions are considered essential for democratic consolidation, while term-limit eliminations are associated with processes of autocratization. From the literature on democratic consolidation, institutionalization and presidential-term-limit reforms we distil theoretical expectations on term-limit-reform paths across time and examine how they relate to the evolution of the political regime. To empirically investigate reform paths across regions we apply the research method of sequence analysis. We find that the stability of term-limit rules is more prevalent than expected, but that this stability sometimes masks institutional ineffectiveness under authoritarian regimes. Rule instability induced by frequent reforms can be part of a piecemeal path towards autocratization, but it can also reflect an open-ended tug of war between authoritarian tendencies and democratic resistance.
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影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Linz, JJ
通讯作者：
Linz, JJ
塞内加尔 (1970–2016)
DOI：
10.1093/oso/9780198837404.003.0017
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
The Politics of Presidential Term Limits
影响因子：
--
作者：
Charlotte Heyl
通讯作者：
Charlotte Heyl
影响因子：
2
作者：
D. Tull;Claudia Simons
通讯作者：
Claudia Simons
塞内加尔（1970-2016）：总统任期限制改革从来都不是单独进行的
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Charlotte Heyl
通讯作者：
Charlotte Heyl
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Daniel N. Posner;D. J. Young
通讯作者：
D. J. Young