Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions.
Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2019284118
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发表时间：
2021-06-22
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Pearse WD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith TP;Flaxman S;Gallinat AS;Kinosian SP;Stemkovski M;Unwin HJT;Watson OJ;Whittaker C;Cattarino L;Dorigatti I;Tristem M;Pearse WD
关于影响COVID-19生态学和流行病学的因素，仍有许多需要了解的地方。特别是，环境变化是否可能驱动SARS-CoV-2传播动态的季节性变化在很大程度上是未知的。我们调查了环境对美国SARS-CoV-2传播率的影响，然后将最重要的环境参数纳入流行病学模型。我们表明，温度和人口密度可以是传播的重要因素，但只有在没有流动性限制的政策措施，虽然可能需要特别强有力的政策措施，以减轻最高的人口密度。我们的研究结果加深了我们对COVID-19传播驱动因素的理解，并突出了政策决策可以积极主动的领域。随着COVID-19继续在全球蔓延，了解影响其传播的因素变得越来越重要。对不断变化的环境的反应驱动的季节性变化已被证明会影响几种冠状病毒的传播强度。然而，环境对严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）的影响在很大程度上仍然未知，因此季节性变化仍然是预测SARS-CoV-2传播的不确定性来源。在这里，我们通过评估温度，湿度，紫外线辐射和人口密度与传播率（R）估计值的关联来解决这个问题。使用来自美国的数据，我们探讨了美国各州的传播相关性，使用比较回归和综合流行病学模型。我们发现，政策干预（“封锁”）和个人流动性的减少是SARS-CoV-2传播率的主要预测因素，但在没有这些因素的情况下，较低的温度和较高的人口密度与SARS-CoV-2传播增加相关。我们的研究结果表明，夏季天气不能被认为是缓解政策的替代品，但在没有政策干预或行为改变的情况下，秋季和冬季气温较低可能导致传播强度增加。我们概述了这些信息如何改善COVID-19的预测，揭示其未来的季节性动态，并为干预政策提供信息。
There is still much to be understood about the factors influencing the ecology and epidemiology of COVID-19. In particular, whether environmental variation is likely to drive seasonal changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics is largely unknown. We investigate the effects of the environment on SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates across the United States and then incorporate the most important environmental parameters into an epidemiological model. We show that temperature and population density can be important factors in transmission but only in the absence of mobility-restricting policy measures, although particularly strong policy measures may be required to mitigate the highest population densities. Our findings improve our understanding of the drivers of COVID-19 transmission and highlight areas in which policy decisions can be proactive. As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world, it is increasingly important to understand the factors that influence its transmission. Seasonal variation driven by responses to changing environment has been shown to affect the transmission intensity of several coronaviruses. However, the impact of the environment on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains largely unknown, and thus seasonal variation remains a source of uncertainty in forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here we address this issue by assessing the association of temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density with estimates of transmission rate (R). Using data from the United States, we explore correlates of transmission across US states using comparative regression and integrative epidemiological modeling. We find that policy intervention (“lockdown”) and reductions in individuals’ mobility are the major predictors of SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates, but, in their absence, lower temperatures and higher population densities are correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Our results show that summer weather cannot be considered a substitute for mitigation policies, but that lower autumn and winter temperatures may lead to an increase in transmission intensity in the absence of policy interventions or behavioral changes. We outline how this information may improve the forecasting of COVID-19, reveal its future seasonal dynamics, and inform intervention policies.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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