Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever.
Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever.
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2458-14-781
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发表时间：
2014-08-22
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Hunter PR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bouzid M;Colón-González FJ;Lung T;Lake IR;Hunter PR
登革热是世界上最流行的蚊媒病毒性疾病。登革热的传播严重依赖于气候因素，人们非常关注气候变化是否会将疾病传播到目前未受影响的地区。2010年在克罗地亚和法国发生的本土感染引起了人们对登革热可能在欧洲重新出现的担忧。本研究的目的是估计在气候变化情景下欧洲登革热的风险。我们使用广义加性模型（GAM）估计登革热风险作为气候变量（最高温度，最低温度，降水，湿度）和社会经济因素（人口密度，城市化，人均GDP和人口规模）的函数，在墨西哥当代条件下（1985-2007年）。然后，我们使用我们的模型估计预测了基线条件（1961-1990年）和三种气候变化情景下的登革热发病率：短期2011-2040年，中期2041-2070年和长期2071-2100年整个欧洲。该模型用于计算覆盖目前27个欧盟成员国所有陆地表面的10 × 10 km网格空间分辨率下的年登革热病例平均数。据我们所知，这是第一次尝试从疾病发生而不是蚊子存在的角度来模拟欧洲的登革热风险。结果使用地理信息系统（GIS）呈现，并可以识别高风险地区。登革热热点集中在地中海和亚得里亚海的沿海地区以及北方意大利的波河流域。这项风险评估研究可能是一个宝贵的工具，有助于采取有效和有针对性的适应对策，以减少世界变暖后可能增加的登革热负担。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1186/1471-2458-14-781）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern as to whether climate change would spread the disease to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue in Europe. The objective of this study is to estimate dengue risk in Europe under climate change scenarios. We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to estimate dengue fever risk as a function of climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socioeconomic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size), under contemporary conditions (1985–2007) in Mexico. We then used our model estimates to project dengue incidence under baseline conditions (1961–1990) and three climate change scenarios: short-term 2011–2040, medium-term 2041–2070 and long-term 2071–2100 across Europe. The model was used to calculate average number of yearly dengue cases at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence. The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy. This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-781) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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影响因子：
4
作者：
Hunter, PR
通讯作者：
Hunter, PR
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0609
发表时间：
2011-05-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe J.;Lake, Iain R.;Bentham, Graham
通讯作者：
Bentham, Graham
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Benedict, Mark Q.;Levine, Rebecca S.;Lounibos, L. Philip
通讯作者：
Lounibos, L. Philip
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2012.0138
发表时间：
2012-10-07
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
--
作者：
Caminade C;Medlock JM;Ducheyne E;McIntyre KM;Leach S;Baylis M;Morse AP
通讯作者：
Morse AP
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Bhaskaran K;Gasparrini A;Hajat S;Smeeth L;Armstrong B
通讯作者：
Armstrong B