Implication of Paris Agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals.
Implication of Paris Agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals.
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DOI：
10.1186/s40064-016-3235-9
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Takimi M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fujimori S;Su X;Liu JY;Hasegawa T;Takahashi K;Masui T;Takimi M
《巴黎协定》确认了实现长期气候目标的全球目标，即与工业化前水平相比，全球平均气温的上升幅度保持在2 °C以下。我们使用亚太综合模式框架，在长期气候减缓目标的背景下，研究了近期排放目标（2030年左右）的影响。为了实现2 °C的目标，需要在本世纪的前半叶或后半叶大幅减少温室气体排放。在中期（2030年至2050年），可能有必要考虑迅速改变现有的能源或社会经济系统，而长期措施（2050年后）将依赖于大量使用生物质，结合碳捕获和储存技术或植树造林，最终实现所谓的负二氧化碳排放。关于政策背景，这里提出两项建议。第一个是审查和修订2020年的国家自主贡献（NDC），在当前NDC的基础上增加一个减排目标是一个可行的替代方案。第二个建议是具体和数字化的中期减排目标，例如到2040年或2050年实现，这也有助于实现长期气候目标。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1186/s40064-016-3235-9）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
The Paris Agreement confirmed the global aim to achieve a long-term climate goal, in which the global increase in mean temperature is kept below 2 °C compared to the preindustrial level. We investigated the implications of the near-term emissions targets (for around the year 2030) in the context of the long-term climate mitigation goal using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model framework. To achieve the 2 °C goal, a large greenhouse gas emissions reduction is required, either in the early or latter half of this century. In the mid-term (from 2030 to 2050), it may be necessary to consider rapid changes to the existing energy or socioeconomic systems, while long-term measures (after 2050) will rely on the substantial use of biomass combined with carbon capture and storage technology or afforestation, which will eventually realize so-called negative CO2 emissions. With respect to the policy context, two suggestions are provided here. The first is the review and revision of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2020, with an additional reduction target to the current NDCs being one workable alternative. The second suggestion is a concrete and numerical mid-term emissions reduction target, for example to be met by 2040 or 2050, which could also help to achieve the long-term climate goal. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40064-016-3235-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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影响因子：
9
作者：
Fujimori, S.;Kainuma, M.;Dai, H.
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