Population mobility reductions associated with travel restrictions during the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone: use of mobile phone data.
Population mobility reductions associated with travel restrictions during the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone: use of mobile phone data.
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/dyy095
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发表时间：
2018-10-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Bengtsson L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peak CM;Wesolowski A;Zu Erbach-Schoenberg E;Tatem AJ;Wetter E;Lu X;Power D;Weidman-Grunewald E;Ramos S;Moritz S;Buckee CO;Bengtsson L
2015年，塞拉利昂以前所未有的规模实施了旅行限制，以遏制和消除埃博拉病毒疾病。然而，疫情出行限制对流动性本身的影响仍难以用传统方法衡量。使用移动的电话数据的新的“大数据”方法可以近实时地提供指导和评估控制措施所需的信息。我们分析了2015年3月20日至7月1日期间塞拉利昂一家主要运营商的匿名移动的电话详细记录（CDR）。我们使用异常检测算法来评估3月27日至29日全国“呆在家里”封锁期间的旅行变化。为了测量这些变化的幅度并评估区域和历史埃博拉负担的影响，我们进行了时间序列分析和交叉分析。联合国收集的移动的电话数据显示，在塞拉利昂为期3天的封锁期间，人员流动性急剧减少。在15公里范围内，酋长之间迁移的人数减少了31%，15-30公里减少了46%，30公里以上减少了76%。这种影响在空间上高度异质，在埃博拉发病率较高的地区影响更大。限制解除后，旅行很快恢复正常。旅行限制对流动性的影响可以是巨大的、有针对性的和可近实时测量的。通过适当的匿名协议，移动的电话数据应在指导和监测流行病控制干预措施方面发挥核心作用。
Travel restrictions were implemented on an unprecedented scale in 2015 in Sierra Leone to contain and eliminate Ebola virus disease. However, the impact of epidemic travel restrictions on mobility itself remains difficult to measure with traditional methods. New ‘big data’ approaches using mobile phone data can provide, in near real-time, the type of information needed to guide and evaluate control measures. We analysed anonymous mobile phone call detail records (CDRs) from a leading operator in Sierra Leone between 20 March and 1 July in 2015. We used an anomaly detection algorithm to assess changes in travel during a national ‘stay at home’ lockdown from 27 to 29 March. To measure the magnitude of these changes and to assess effect modification by region and historical Ebola burden, we performed a time series analysis and a crossover analysis. Routinely collected mobile phone data revealed a dramatic reduction in human mobility during a 3-day lockdown in Sierra Leone. The number of individuals relocating between chiefdoms decreased by 31% within 15 km, by 46% for 15–30 km and by 76% for distances greater than 30 km. This effect was highly heterogeneous in space, with higher impact in regions with higher Ebola incidence. Travel quickly returned to normal patterns after the restrictions were lifted. The effects of travel restrictions on mobility can be large, targeted and measurable in near real-time. With appropriate anonymization protocols, mobile phone data should play a central role in guiding and monitoring interventions for epidemic containment.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0906910106
发表时间：
2009-12-22
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1522305113
发表时间：
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1203882109
发表时间：
2012-07-17
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
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影响因子：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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